One of the most intriguing college basketball matchups of the Tuesday slate pits the No. 18 Vanderbilt Commodores against the Kentucky Wildcats in SEC play. One side comes into this matchup nationally ranked; the other received votes in the most recent AP Poll and is looking to earn its way in.
Here’s a prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt on Tuesday, January 27.
Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt prediction, preview
Kentucky Wildcats
It seems as though Kentucky basketball is always around near the top of the sport’s scene, and that certainly hasn’t changed this season. With a 14-6 record and 5-2 result through SEC play so far, the Wildcats are firmly in the mix to make a run in the conference. Quad 1 wins over No. 22 St. John’s, LSU and No. 24 Tennessee do stand out, as do Quad 2 victories over Indiana and Texas as well.
Kentucky sits 28th in the KenPom rankings with a +21.41 NETRTG, also having received votes in the latest AP Poll. This program largely plays well on both sides of the ball, averaging 82.5 PPG (51st) while allowing 70.3 PPG on the other end (77th). Ball movement is the name of the game for this unit, dishing 16.8 assists per game with the 22nd-best AST/TO ratio in all of Division I basketball. The Wildcats also shoot 47.3% from the field, though a 34.4% three-point percentage lags behind and they’re outside the top-100 teams in 3PA per contest. Kentucky also pulls down 38.3 rebounds per game (50th) while blocking 4.7 shots (35th).
Kentucky’s rotation is led by Otega Oweh, a guard who posts a team-best 16.1 PPG. Denzel Aberdeen is second on the roster with 12.3 PPG and is the only other scorer in double-figures while dishing a team-high 3.2 assists. Mouhamed Dioubate and Malachi Moreno contribute 9.4 PTS/5.6 REB and 8.7 PTS/6.4 REB in the frontcourt, while Collin Chandler posts 9.1 PPG on 40.6% shooting from beyond the arc. Overall, it’s a team effort for the Wildcats as they run a deep rotation.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Elsewhere in the SEC, the Commodores have the best overall record of any team at 17-3 but are 4-3 in conference, bumping them down a rung on the ladder. Quad 1 wins over UCF, Wake Forest and No. 13 Alabama are reason for encouragement, but Vanderbilt has also dropped some winnable games as well.
Overall, Vandy sits 13th in the latest KenPom rankings with a NETRTG of 27.42. This is an offense-minded program which scores 90.1 PPG, seventh-most in the nation. The Commodores push the tempo with top-36 marks in both shot attempts and threes taken, connecting on 49.3% of looks from the field (23rd) and 36.3% from beyond the arc (56th). They actually average the 10th-most FGM per contest, also dealing 18.0 assists (18th) with the sixth-best AST/TO ratio, too. However, the defense does lag behind. Vanderbilt produces 36.8 rebounds per outing (97th) and allows 74.0 PPG (158th).
For the Commodores, Tyler Tanner’s 17.4 PPG and 5.3 assists are team-highs while the guard also connects on 40.2% of his three-point attempts. Fellow guard Duke Miles remains close behind with 16.6 PPG and 4.3 dimes, but it’s also notable that the backcourt duo combines for 5.2 steals per game as well. Tyler Nickel shoots a blazing 46.3% from deep to the tune of 14.7 PPG, and Devin McGlockton produces 10.2 PPG with a team-best 6.7 rebounds. Jalen Washington and AK Okereke also play key rotation roles for Vanderbilt.
Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists Vanderbilt as a 6.5-point favorite tonight at home with -298 odds to win on the Moneyline. Kentucky’s odds of an outright upset sit at +240 with the game total set at 154.5 points. Betting splits indicate 79% of straight bets on the Commodores to win.
This may be a very close affair. The Wildcats are riding high following a five-game winning streak, building some pretty significant momentum heading into Nashville tonight. This is an opportunity for the program to make a huge statement not only in the SEC, but also in the bigger picture of the sport as a whole as it pushes to get into the next batch of AP rankings. It’ll be a difficult task though, even given how successful Kentucky has looked lately.
Vanderbilt has more star power and one of the highest-powered offenses in the entire NCAA. Kentucky, while solid on both ends of the floor, may not have what it takes to match their opponents’ production. While the Wildcats limit turnovers for the most part, the Commodores are excellent at creating difference-making plays through steals (9.2/GM, 17th) and blocks (5.1/GM, 18th). That means possessions wiped out for Kentucky and extra opportunities for Vanderbilt, which already pushes the pace and pours on the points.
One more stat to watch is in the first half in particular. The Commodores produce 46.0 PPG in the first half, the second-most of any Division I team. Conversely, Kentucky is a second-half team itself with 45.7 PPG in that frame… while allowing 34.2 PPG in the first half to opponents, a rate that falls 139th in the nation. Vanderbilt loves to get out to a hot start and the visitors may not be equipped to deal with that, which is why I like over 38.5 points for the Commodores in the first half. However, I do think the Wildcats try to play catch-up in the second half, allowing them to get in and cover at +6.5 as well.
