Two seasons ago, Bayer Leverkusen nearly did the impossible, winning an invincible treble. But their quest came to a halt in the Europa League final, when they lost 3-0 to Atalanta. Since then, the mighty have fallen: nearly every member of their historic squad has left, and they rank just sixth in the Bundesliga. Moreover, they’re still facing the threat of elimination from the Champions League, as a loss to Villarreal in Wednesday’s 3 p.m. ET Matchday 8 clash might well condemn it to an early exit.
What’s working in Die Werkself’s favor is that the Yellow Submarine have already been eliminated and have nothing to play for but pride. It’ll also play the match at home, where it has been somewhat better.
Leverkusen is a -155 favorite to win at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Villarreal is +370. There are +340 odds that the teams will draw, which would probably be enough for Die Werkself but wouldn’t be a mathematical guarantee.
Bayer Leverkusen vs. Villarreal prediction, pick
With one decent win — a 2-0 victory over Manchester City at the Etihad — Leverkusen looked to be in a comfortable position to move on to the knockout stages, but it bottled it in a trip to Athens, losing 2-0 to bubble-team Olympiacos. Between the Matchday 7 result and a 7-2 loss to title-holders Paris Saint-Germain, Die Werkself has put itself in a difficult situation with an unfavorable goal difference. It still hasn’t disappointed to the same degree as Villarreal, which sits second-to-last on just one point and has had some lopsided results, including a 4-0 thrashing at the hands of Borussia Dortmund. The Yellow Submarine has arguably gotten better as of late to lose each of its past two matches by a single goal, but competitive losses are still worth zero points.
Patrik Schick and Álex Grimaldo are two of the holdovers from Leverkusen’s title-winning side, and they’ve made all the difference so far, as the team’s two leading scorers in the Bundesliga and two of its three leaders in the Champions League. To be sure, Die Werkself has some other talented players — Christian Kofane scored two goals in the Africa Cup of Nations for Cameroon and Malik Tillman scored three in the CONCACAF Gold Cup for the United States — but so far, the veterans have led the way in the Champions League. It’s worked well enough so far — Leverkusen has had about a competition-average attack by both goals scored and expected goals while producing the 13th-most expected goals per shot — but it hasn’t been great defensively, allowing the 13th-most expected goals. To make matters worse, Mark Flekken is no Lukas Hradecky, as he’s saved fewer than 70% of the shots on target he’s faced. Die Werkself has also won ground duels at the fourth-lowest rate and has allowed the third-most goals on fast breaks.
Leverkusen has performed better than Villarreal, though. The Yellow Submarine has scored the third-fewest goals in the competition, with Tani Oluwaseyi the only player to find the back of the net more than once. Villarreal’s horrible form in the Champions League stands in stark contrast with its performance in La Liga, where it ranks fourth and four different players have scored at least five goals. And while the Yellow Submarine’s domestic form could provide a reason for optimism that it could turn itself around in the Champions League, ranking second-to-last in goals minus expected goals will never cut it, especially since it has been just as bad in the back. It ranks third-to-last in goals minus expected goals, third-to-last in win rate on aerial duels, and Luiz Lúcio Reis Júnior is the only player in the Champions League not to have saved half the shots on goal that he’s faced.
To be fair, Villarreal’s playing style could work well with Leverkusen’s weaknesses, given that it has attempted the fourth-most fast-breaks. Since all three of Die Werkself’s center backs also have attacking duties, they’re somewhat vulnerable to being beaten from the back. However, Leverkusen’s ability to control the pace of the game through build-up play, combined with the Yellow Submarine’s weakness against set pieces and Luiz’s struggles between the sticks, will ultimately prove enough for it to prevail narrowly in the end.
