In the new Champions League format, introduced prior to 2024-25, securing a top-eight place in the League Phase and securing a bye into the Round of 16 tends to matter. Last season’s winners, Paris Saint-Germain, came from outside the top eight, but three of the four semifinalists bypassed the knockout playoffs, and the Europa League and Conference League were both won by teams in the top eight. Matchweek 8 will be extremely important for teams sitting between third and 18th, who all have a chance of earning a bye. All 18 matches will begin at 3 p.m. ET on Wednesday.
The ultimate bubble team right now is Barcelona, which sits ninth behind Chelsea on goal difference. The Blaugrana are in a comfortable position to secure advancement with a win over Copenhagen, given that PSG and Newcastle, who sit sixth and seventh, will play each other on the final match day, but with seven other teams on 13 points, it’s not a guarantee. As for the Lions, a loss would condemn them to an early exit.
Barcelona is a -750 favorite to win at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Copenhagen is +1600. There are +800 odds that the teams will draw.
Barcelona vs. Copenhagen prediction, pick
The Spanish leaders and 2024-25 semifinalists have had a roller-coaster ride through the Champions League so far, posting two wins, two losses, and a draw in their first five matches, including an extremely disappointing 3-3 draw against Club Brugge and a 3-0 defeat against the equally inconsistent Chelsea. But the Blaugrana have put themselves on the precipice of a bye with comeback wins over Eintracht Frankfurt and Slavia Prague. Similarly, the Lions were a disaster at the start, losing handily to three of the first four teams on their schedule, before narrowly beating out the already-eliminated Kairat Almaty and Villarreal and drawing with Napoli to give themselves a chance on the final day. Still, not all losses are created equal: given the value of each squad — Barcelona’s is worth nearly 15 times as much, per Transfermarkt — the Blaugrana’s campaign still might be more disappointing than Copenhagen’s.
Hansi Flick’s side has dealt with injuries all season, but as of late, it has kicked it into high gear. Since the start of December, Barcelona has 12 wins and one loss in all competitions, keeping five consecutive clean sheets at one point. Injuries to Raphinha and Robert Lewandowski has helped the Blaugrana develop their depth pieces, as Ferrán Torres leads the team in goals in La Liga and Fermin López and Marcus Rashford lead the way in the Champions League. Both domestically and in Europe, Barcelona’s attack has been ridiculous, scoring the most goals in La Liga and the sixth-most in the Champions League, but its defense leaves something to be desired. The Blaugrana have allowed 13 goals — three more than any other team in the top 10 — and they’ve allowed shots in the box at the eighth-highest rate. Neither Joan García nor Wojciech Szczęsny has saved even 65% of the shots he has faced in the Champions League, and Barcelona ranks fifth-to-last in goals minus expected goals. It isn’t all bad — the Blaugrana have won ground duels at the second-highest rate and aerial duels at the highest — but because they play a high-risk style designed to trap opponents offsides, any damage tends to be heavy.
The Lions, on the other hand, haven’t fared much better domestically than in Europe. So far, Copenhagen sits just fifth in the Danish Superliga, which would be its worst finish since 1999-2000, when it finished eighth. No player has scored more than five goals in the Superliga, and only Jordan Larsson has even scored three in the Champions League, though a pair of wunderkinds — 17-year-old Icelander Viktor Dadason and 20-year-old Brazilian Robert — have both scored twice in European competition. The Lions’ attack has been fine in the League Phase — they’ve scored 11 goals — but their defense has been an issue, as they’ve conceded the 14th-most shots on target per 90 minutes and compounded it by ranking fourth-to-last in goals minus expected goals. Goalie Dominik Kotarski has saved just 55.6% of the shots on target he’s faced, the seventh-worst mark of any qualified player, and unlike García, he hasn’t been successful domestically either. Copenhagen has also won ground duels at the seventh-lowest rate, though at least it has been good at aerial duels.
The Lions haven’t been vulnerable to the offsides trap, getting caught just six times, but that’s also because they don’t go on the direct attack very frequently, and their low pass completion rate could be a major issue against a press-heavy Barcelona team. Plus, the Blaugrana’s high success rate on aerial challenges helps neutralize a Copenhagen team that relies on crosses to be successful and is tied for fifth with three headed goals. The Lions’ ability to win aerial duels in their own right, as well as their tenacity in clearing the ball, could make it difficult, but with Barcelona needing a win, it should be able to get through in the end.
