A heavyweight SEC matchup will be tipping off on this Tuesday slate as the Arkansas Razorbacks take on the Oklahoma Sooners.
These programs have faced off 32 times in history, with Arkansas holding a narrow 17-15 series advantage. However, Oklahoma is 8-3 in the matchups played in Norman. This matchup will be the first time these teams faced off on Oklahoma’s home court since 2011.
Looking at the odds, Arkansas enters as a 3.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook with the game total set at 167.5.
Arkansas vs. Oklahoma prediction, preview
Arkansas is off to a 15-5 start to the season, and is 5-2 in SEC play. The program’s losses have come at the hands of Georgia, Auburn, Houston, Duke, and Michigan State. The Razorbacks are coming off back-to-back wins against Vanderbilt and LSU entering this matchup. On the season, Arkansas has gone 13-7 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 11 of the 20 matchups.
John Calipari’s squad likes to push the pace and can fill the scoring column up quickly. Arkansas is averaging 89.6 points per game, which is the 14th-best rate among D1 teams. The team ranks 14th in offensive rating, 23rd in field goal percentage, and 14th in three-point percentage. Defensively, teams are scoring 77.2 points per game against the Razorbacks, which ranks 275th out of the 365 qualifying D1 teams. They also rank 192nd in defensive rating, 179th in opponent field goal percentage, and 78th in opponent three-point percentage.
Darius Acuff Jr. is the team’s leading scorer at 20.2 points and 6.2 assists, while shooting 42.0% on three-point attempts. Meleek Thomas adds 15.2 points and 3.6 rebounds, also shooting 40.8% from the perimeter. Trevon Brazile adds 12.6 points and 6.8 rebounds as a 40.4% three-point shooter. Malique Ewin, Karter Knox, D.J. Wagner, and Billy Richmond III also play key roles in the rotation.
The Oklahoma Sooners enter with a record of 11-9 on the season, and are 1-6 in SEC play. They enter this matchup on a six-game losing streak, which has come at the hands of Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Florida, Alabama, South Carolina, and Missouri. Oklahoma has also fallen short against Gonzaga, Nebraska, and Arizona State this year. The program’s most impressive win came against Wake Forest. Overall, the Sooners have gone 7-12-1 against the spread, and the game total has gone 10-10 to the over/under.
Porter Moser’s squad is averaging 83.7 points per game, which ranks 54th in the country. Oklahoma also ranks 41st in offensive rating, 124th in field goal percentage, 139th in three-point percentage, 48th in three-point attempts, and 70th in rebounds per game. Defensively, opponents are scoring 75.9 points per game, which ranks 241st in the country. The Sooners rank 245th in defensive rating, 143rd in opponents’ field goal percentage, 228th in opponents’ three-point percentage, and 229th in three-point attempts allowed.
Xzayvier Brown headlines the scoring for Oklahoma with 16.5 points and 3.4 assists. Nijel Pack adds 15.7 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 3.2 assists while shooting 42.2% from beyond the three-point arc. Tae Davis and Derrion Reid each also contribute over 11.0 points per game, with Davis adding 6.4 rebounds. Mohamed Wague is posting a team-leading 6.6 rebounds along with 6.7 points and 1.5 blocks. Kuol Atak and Jadon Jones also play important roles.
Arkansas vs. Oklahoma pick, best bet
Oklahoma is in the midst of an ugly skid in which it has not played up to its potential as a team. Arkansas has been more consistent in who it is as a unit, although the team has shown some flaws at times.
My lean is certainly toward Arkansas taking care of business and covering the 3.5-point spread. But Oklahoma is a tough place to play, and the Sooners are due for some sort of bounce-back effort. Rather than back the Razorbacks on the number, I am taking the over on 167.5 in this matchup.
Both of these teams can score the ball at a high rate and have some defensive issues. Arkansas has put up 85+ points in each of its past eight wins, including recording over 100 points in three of these. Oklahoma has been unable to hold an opponent to under 80 points in any of its past five losses, and has scored 100+ points in a pair of games as well this season.
Expect Arkansas to especially have success from beyond the three-point arc. The Razorbacks rank 14th in three-point percentage with their top three scorers each shooting over 40% from the perimeter. Oklahoma has struggled to defend this area of the court, ranking 229th in three-point attempts allowed and 228th in opponent three-point percentage.
Count on both of these teams actively attempting to push the pace and get out in transition to create easy looks. Neither defense has a clear path for slowing down their opponents and each side will have a chance at eclipsing 90 points. 167.5 is a high game total, but is well within reach for these two high-powered offenses.
