The matchup has been set.
With narrow victories on Conference Championship Sunday, the Patriots and the Seahawks have emerged as the participants for Super Bowl LX. In fact, this will be the second meeting for these two squads on Super Sunday, with New England memorably defeating Seattle 28-24 in Super Bowl XLIX in February of 2015.
As is always the case, there will be thousands of Super Bowl props on the DraftKings Sportsbook, and we’ll be going over every single angle of the game a million times in the two-week lead-up on DraftKings Network. Below, I’ll be going over a few of my initial leans.
Let’s break down some prop bets, shall we?
2026 Super Bowl Prop Bets
Hunter Henry 40+ Receiving Yards (-104)
Aside from a 28-yard touchdown catch in the Wild Card round, Hunter Henry has been pretty quiet in these playoffs. Granted, no Patriots’ skill-position player did much of anything in Sunday’s second-half blizzard in Denver. Still, don’t let recent results fog your memory of Hunter’s fantastic regular season. Remember, the tight end finished Week 18 ranking first on New England in receiving touchdowns (7), and second to only Stefon Diggs in catches (60), targets (87) and receiving yards (768). Hunter wasn’t just successful in the context of his own roster, either. Those 768 receiving yards were the seventh-most of any TE in the NFL.
At the end of the day, the 31-year-old is a proven offensive weapon, and Hunter clearly has a connection with Drake Maye. With the Patriots more than a slight underdog in the Super Bowl, there’s a decent chance the team will be playing from behind, and passing at a higher clip than usual. Such a script would portend good results from Henry; as does this matchup. Seattle’s defense is stout, yet it has been susceptible to opposing tight ends. During the regular season, the Seahawks conceded the fourth-most targets per game to opposing TEs (8.5), along with the sixth-most yards per game to the position (63.5).
TreVeyon Henderson 6+ Rushing Attempts (+103)
TreVeyon Henderson is an explosive back. Not only did the rookie average 5.1 yards per rushing attempt during the regular season, but he broke off four carries of 40-plus yards, showcasing his breathtaking big-play ability. So, with all known, it might come as a bit of a shock to see Henderson’s rushing attempt prop at such a low number. Well, the explanation is two-fold.
First and foremost, Henderson has lost a considerable amount of workload during the playoffs, culminating in logging only four offensive snaps in the AFC Championship Game. Secondly, the Seahawks are the best run defense in the NFL, ranking first the league in EPA per opponent rushing attempt by a considerable margin (-0.15). That strength, combined with an elite point differential, created a funnel effect for opposing offenses, as teams ran the ball on a mere 39.5% of snaps against Seattle during the regular season — the third-lowest rate in the league.
All that said, I remain confident that Henderson will have a role in the Super Bowl. I think weather was a large reason for Henderson’s complete lack of snaps and touches against the Broncos, as the Patriots have continuously utilized a 60/40 split with their backfield tandem, including in the Wild Card and Divisional rounds. Henderson saw nine carries versus Los Angeles. He saw 12 more in a matchup with the Texans. Due to his game-changing ceiling, I’d expect Henderson to once again flirt with double-digit attempts against Seattle. This line is an overreaction.
Drake Maye Under 37.5 Rushing Yards (-109)
This total just feels high, doesn’t it?
While Maye has certainly had an impact with his mobility in the postseason, he’s not actually hit this over in any of his three playoff starts. In fact, he’s only exceeded 37 yards rushing in five of his 20 starts for the season as a whole. That’s not a great omen, especially when you consider how ferocious this Seattle front seven can be.
However, the biggest thing to consider with this prop isn’t the talent level of the Seahawks’ defense — it’s the style of the Seahawks’ defense. According to Sharp Football Analysis, Seattle utilized a zone coverage scheme on a whopping 80.4% of its defensive snaps versus the pass during the regular season, which was the third-highest rate in the NFL. Zone means more eyes on the QB and therefore less surprise when said quarterback takes off and runs. Maye is certainly athletic, and I have no doubt he’ll try and use his legs at some point during the Super Bowl, but nearing 40 rushing yards is a lot to ask for the sophomore in this particular matchup.
