Division rivals go toe-to-toe on Monday night in H-Town, but this matchup has the makings of a lopsided affair. The Houston Rockets are nearly at full strength as they host a banged-up Memphis Grizzlies squad missing plenty of key pieces. It’s a tough look for the visitors and a prime opportunity for the home side to tack on a much-needed win. As for those of us on the couch as we try to stay warm, what kind of value can we find to get in on the action?
Here’s a Grizzlies vs. Rockets prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Monday’s game.
Grizzlies vs. Rockets prediction, preview
Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies find themselves stuck between a rock and a hard place. Trade rumors have swirled around star guard Ja Morant amidst talks of a potential reset in a disappointing campaign. At 18-25, they’re floundering on the outskirts of the Play-In picture and have numerous key rotation pieces — Morant included — out of the lineup due to injuries heading into this game.
Memphis sits 19th in NETRTG at -1.1 and 20th in pace around the league. The team doesn’t excel on either end of the floor, scoring 115.5 PPG (19th) while allowing 116.6 PPG (20th) to opponents. One area where they’re strongest on the boards (even despite the continued absence of starting center Zach Edey), pulling down the fifth-most rebounds of any team with 55.6 per game. Additionally, the Grizzlies rank fifth in assists with 29.0 per contest while sitting fourth in AST/FGM and 12th in AST/TO ratio. Those are some interesting numbers given Morant’s extensive time missed due to injuries, and they do paint the remainder of the guard rotation in quite the positive light. However, the Grizz shoot just 53.3% on twos and 35.0% on threes as a team, marks which fall 23rd and 20th, respectively.
It’s fair to throw many of those stats out entirely tonight, though. Morant (elbow) and Jock Landale (personal) are both out while Santi Aldama (knee) is questionable to play.
That leaves Jaren Jackson Jr. as the main star on Monday. The veteran big man posts 18.9 PPG with 5.7 REB and 1.5 BLK, but he was held to just nine points in his first game against the Rockets this season. Rookie Cedric Coward is tied with Aldama with 14.0 PPG apiece while each contribute around 6.5 REB and 3.0 AST as well. Second-year guard Cam Spencer has looked good this season with 12.0 PPG and 5.5 AST while shooting a blazing 46.4% from three, and he’s shown upside in a larger role when Morant misses time. However, it’s clear this will need to be a true team effort.
Houston Rockets
After winning back-to-back outings, one of which came on the road against the Eastern Conference-leading Pistons, the Rockets appear to be finding their footing once more. It’s been an up-and-down few weeks for this roster, but they’re now 27-16 and sit fourth in the Western Conference standings with 2.5 games separating them from the third-place Nuggets and Spurs.
As has been the case all season, this Houston unit emphasizes defense and grit on the glass above all else. The Rockets give up just 110.8 PPG (fourth) while ranking first in rebounding with 59.8 per contest. They dominate the offensive boards in particular, leading the league in both OREB and OREB%. The array of defensive wings also wreaks havoc with the team sitting sixth in blocks and 11th in steals per game as well. However, Houston’s offense is much more inconsistent. The Rockets produce 116.9 PPG (13th) with the sixth-fewest assists and third-worst AST/TO ratio, indicating a lack of standout playmaking from a floor general. They also shoot just 53.4% on twos (22nd), though their three-point percentage of 37.2% ranks fourth in the league. That could come from a lack of overall attempts though, with Houston taking the second-fewest shots from deep per game.
The Rockets are largely healthy, with Steven Adams (ankle) the only rotation player listed out. Aaron Holiday (back) is probable. That means the star duo of Kevin Durant (26.3 PPG, 5.5 REB, 4.6 AST) and Alperen Sengun (21.2 PPG, 9.0 REB, 6.4 AST) are both available to keep working as one of the league’s top two-man games. Amen Thompson sits third on the team with 18.4 PPG, also pitching in 7.7 REB and 5.2 AST as a point forward of sorts with elite defense and quick-twitch athleticism. Jabari Smith Jr. (15.3 PPG, 6.9 REB) and Tari Eason (11.7 PPG, 6.1 REB) play strong roles in the frontcourt rotation. Finally, second-year guard Reed Sheppard averages 13.1 PPG while shooting over 40% from three and comes off an 18-point outing against the Pistons.
Grizzlies vs. Rockets pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Rockets as 10.5-point home favorites tonight with -440 odds on the Moneyline. The Grizzlies are +340 ML underdogs with the game total set at 224.5 points. Betting splits show 89% of straight wagers on Houston to win.
In the lone meeting between these teams thus far this season, Houston won 124-109 on the road. It’s been a while since that November 5 contest, but Morant was notably active for that one, as was Landale as well. With the Grizzlies down two starters tonight, it’s unlikely that the outlook improves much for Memphis. The impact created by the absence of Morant doesn’t need much explanation, even in the middle of one of the worst seasons of the star’s career. The loss of Landale is arguably more impactful as the starting center was one of few players who can truly compete with the Rockets’ rebound-centric approach.
Houston should dominate the boards tonight, creating plenty of extra possessions that can make up for relatively poor efficiency in the paint. Expect the Rockets to comfortably win the rebounding battle and score points in the paint, even if Jackson Jr. slides over to center here. Memphis doesn’t have the star power available to compete with Durant and Sengun, and a tough defense may limit the effectiveness of standout role players like Coward, Spencer and more as well. This shapes up as a blowout for the Rockets in front of the home crowd.
Top pick: HOU Rockets -10.5 (-108)
