The NFL Postseason has finally reached the AFC and NFC Conference Championships, meaning just two weeks remain of action on the gridiron before the year wraps up. While it does feel like time is running out to enjoy the sport we all love, it also means it’s time to sit back and soak in every last second of the games this weekend. At 3 p.m. EST on Sunday, the first contest of the day kicks off as the Denver Broncos host the New England Patriots in the Mile High City.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, New England is a 4.5-point favorite on the road with -225 odds on the Moneyline. The total sits at 42.5 combined points, the lower of the two games on this slate.
Here are the top player prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Patriots vs. Broncos in the AFC Championship Game.
Patriots vs. Broncos best prop bets
TreVeyon Henderson under 37.5 rushing yards (-111)
The battle between Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson for the Patritots’ RB1 job frustrated fantasy managers and bettors alike throughout much of the regular season. While it seemed the latter finally took over about two-thirds of the way through the year, Stevenson battled back and has become even more of a thorn in the side of his teammate lately, especially in the postseason. The veteran tallied 100+ scrimmage yards in three straight contests and scored five total touchdowns over that span, and one of those games took place in the Wild Card at that.
In the playoffs thus far, Stevenson has handled 10 and 16 rush attempts to just nine and 12 for Henderson, also out-snapping the younger back by 22 and 24 percentage points across those two contests. With a limited workload and declining efficiency of just 3.0 and 2.1 YPC across those games, Henderson has hit just 27 and 25 rushing yards in the first two postseason appearances of his career. That’s far from a hot start.
So, where does that leave him? Henderson should still get some work in this game, especially if New England plays with a lead against an already unpredictable offense now led backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham. With that said though, recent results against strong run defenses like the Chargers and Texans have proven unencouraging. His big-play threat means he can wreck a game and this rushing line of 37.5 yards, but he’s not making the most of his chances and sees a very difficult matchup this week. The Broncos’ defense allowed the second-fewest rushing yards during the regular season’s sample and posted a league-best success percentage against the run of 33.3%, 1.7 percentage points better than the next-closest team and 3.7 percentage points lower than the two squads tied for third in the stat. With plenty of run stuffers on the field at any given time, it’ll be tough to get much going on the ground against Denver.
It’s not that Henderson isn’t talented, it’s just that he hasn’t produced well against top units and likely won’t see the bulk of carries for the Patriots either. He should stay under 37.5 rushing yards on Sunday.
Drake Maye under 29.5 pass attempts (-119)
While I typically like to split the props across both teams, but Stidham is such an unknown that it’s quite tough to feel good about most of the prop bets on the Broncos’ side. That’s why we’re rolling with the other quarterback here and taking one of Drake Maye’s lines instead. The second-year star will likely finish second in the MVP race and has put forth an amazing campaign overall, but his playoffs haven’t exactly been a stellar first showing in a postseason environment. He finished with 268 yards, one touchdown and one pick in the Wild Card with a 58.6% completion rate, then followed it with 179 yards, three scores and a pick with a 59.3% completion rate in the Divisional. The latter performance may have seen plenty of passing touchdowns, but there were plenty of negative plays throughout the contest as well.
Now, he gets a date against a formidable Denver defense. While I’m bearish on his counting stats against the NFL’s top pass rush and talent in the secondary like reigning DPOY Pat Surtain II, I also don’t project a ton of volume for Maye in this outing. He’s thrown 29 and 27 passes across the first two playoff games, and his last game with even 30+ attempts came back in Week 16. The young quarterback’s attempts O/U comes in at 29.5, a line he stayed under in 11 of his 19 total contests over the course of the full campaign. With a questionable offense on the other side, volume may be easier to project for the Patriots’ ground attack than via the air. Plus, New England will look to avoid turnovers after nearly coughing the game up multiple times last week against the Texans, so it’s possible the game plan tries to insulate Maye a little bit for the first road playoff game of his career.
