The top two seeds in the AFC will face off for the first time this season. Both the Broncos and Patriots finished the regular season with a 14-3 record, but Denver earned the top seed and home-field advantage through the playoffs.
The Broncos will be without Bo Nix, as he suffered a season-ending injury in the Divisional Round matchup against the Bills. Jarrett Stidham will start, putting Denver at a significant disadvantage.
New England is a 5.5-point favorite and -258 on the moneyline, while Denver is +210 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at 42.5 points.
Here are the top first touchdown prop bets for the AFC Championship game between the Broncos and Patriots.
Broncos vs. Patriots first touchdown scorer prop bets
Stefon Diggs first touchdown scorer (+1000)
This isn’t a offensive-friendly game, but there are still a few good options for first touchdown. Stefon Diggs isn’t the favorite for first touchdown, but he’s arguably the best offensive player on both teams (quarterbacks excluded).
Diggs finished with his seventh 1,000-yard season. He’s had 1,000 yards in each year since 2018, excluding 2024 when he played just eight games. His touchdowns, however, took a dip this year. He had just four across 17 games with the Patriots. That’s slightly concerning, but he stepped up in the playoffs last week.
The veteran wideout caught four of six passes for 40 yards and a touchdown vs. Houston. He’s still Drake Maye’s top option and an excellent play for first touchdown at +1000.
No first touchdown scorer (+8000)
Let’s get wild. If you’re a fan of defenses and willing to sweat out a first touchdown bet all game, this might be for you.
The Broncos have an obvious flaw with Nix injured for the rest of the season. Stidham has started just four career games, all in the regular season. Putting him up against a stout New England defense is a recipe for disaster.
The Patriots have a healthy offense, but they’re facing one of the best defenses in the league. Denver allowed the second fewest yards and third fewest points this year, and it will have home-field advantage with high altitude. The latter isn’t always a major factor, but its always considered entering such important games.
It’s a long shot, but worth a sprinkle if you’re a believer in both defenses.