The fourth round of the Australian Open continues on Sunday night for American viewers. One of the biggest matches of the tournament so far is the battle of two of America’s top players, Jessica Pegula and Madison Keys.
This is my best bet to target on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Pegula vs. Keys match.
Jessica Pegula vs. Madison Keys Preview
Jessica Pegula has been one of the best women in the sport over the past few years. She has reached as high as No. 3 in the world and currently ranks No. 6 in the world. However, a Grand Slam title has evaded her over the years. She made the 2024 US Open Final and made it to the semifinals there last year. However, those are the only two times in her career that Pegula has made it to a Grand Slam semifinal. Pegula has been fantastic so far at this year’s Australian Open. In her three matches so far, her opponents have yet to win more than three games in a single set. Pegula will look to keep that domination going against her friend and fellow American Madison Keys.
Madison Keys finally had her Grand Slam breakthrough last year here in Australia. Keys rose to prominence around the same time as Pegula in the American tennis scene, but also couldn’t get it done at Grand Slams. From 2015-2023, Keys made six Grand Slam semifinals, but never lifted a trophy. Last year, she played some of the best tennis of her life to finally win at the 2025 Australian Open. Keys is currently the No. 9 player in the world as she seeks to retain her title. She has not been quite as dominant through three rounds as Pegula, but her opponents have also yet to win a set so far in this tournament.
Jessica Pegula vs. Madison Keys Pick, Best Bet
My best bet is on Madison Keys to win. Keys is a short underdog (+133) at DraftKings Sportsbook against her fellow American. There is clearly a mental block for Pegula when it comes to big matches in Grand Slams. For her level of talent over the past decade, she has consistently underperformed in major tournaments. Pegula did make the semifinals in New York last year, but didn’t make it out of the fourth round in any of the other three Grand Slams. She did not even make it out of the third round in Australia during either of the past two years. Meanwhile, Madison Keys should be full of confidence as the title holder here in Melbourne.
These two have only faced off three times before. They most recently faced off in the lead-up to the Australian Open last year, specifically in the final of the Adelaide International. Keys defeated Pegula 2:1 in that huge match last year. The two most recently faced off in a Grand Slam at the 2023 US Open, where Keys also won 2:0. Pegula’s only win over Keys came all the way back in 2022 in San Diego. Between Keys’ head-to-head success over Pegula and her superior Grand Slam success, it’s worth a bet on the defending champion as an underdog in this spot.
