No. 15 Vanderbilt will face off with unranked Mississippi State on Saturday, Jan. 24. With the incoming winter storm, the game time has been moved up to noon ET.
Vanderbilt is a 7.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. Mississippi State is a +275 underdog, and the game total set at 159.5 points.
Vanderbilt vs. Mississippi State prediction, preview
The Vanderbilt Commodores are off to a 16-3 start to the season, with all three losses coming in conference play. They have come up short against Texas, Florida and Arkansas after starting the season on a 16-game winning streak. While the 98-94 loss to Florida was more than respectable, Texas and Arkansas won by 24 and 25 points. Vanderbilt is 10-9 against the spread this season, and the game total has gone over in 10 of its 19 matchups.
The Commodores lean on an energetic offense, averaging 90.2 points per game (11th in the nation). They also rank 12th in offensive rating, 45th in three-point attempts, 51st in three-point efficiency, 29th in field goal percentage, and 21st in assists per game.
Defense is where the team struggles, however. It’s allowing 74.9 points per game, which ranks 216th in the country. Vanderbilt ranks 102nd in defensive rating, 82nd in opponents’ field goal percentage, 27th in opponents’ three-point percentage, 31st in steals per games and 20th in blocks per game.
Tyler Tanner leads the team with 17.1 points, 5.3 assists and 3.5 rebounds per game. Duke Miles adds 16.6 points and 4.3 assists. Tanner and Miles are among the conference leaders in steals at 2.5 per game. Tyler Nickel averages 14.3 points, while shooting an SEC-best 46.8% from three.
Mississippi State is 10-9 and on a four-game losing streak. Its most impressive victory came over Texas in overtime. Mississippi State is 6-13 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 10 of its 19 games.
Chris Jans’ squad is generating 78.8 points per game, which ranks 134th in the country. They also rank 205th in offensive rating, 241st in field goal percentage, 336th in three-point percentage, and 25th in rebounds per game. Opponents are scoring 78 points per game against the Bulldogs, which ranks 293rd in the country. Mississippi State ranks 239th in defensive rating, 89th in opponents’ field goal percentage, 45th in opponents’ three-point percentage, and 343rd in rebounds allowed.
Mississippi State can be a bit of a one-man show. Two-time All-SEC team member Josh Hubbard is averaging 21.7 points and 3.7 assists per game. Jayden Epps is the only other player averaging in double figures at 15.2 points and 2.5 rebounds per game.
Vanderbilt vs. Mississippi State pick, best bet
Both of these teams are looking to snap a losing streak. Expect Vanderbilt’s offensive firepower to be the difference in this game.
Vanderbilt should push the pace and attack from beyond the three-point arc. It is attempting the 45th-most three-point attempts per game in the country and connecting at the 51st-best rate. In contrast, Mississippi State ranks 123rd in three-point volume and 336th in efficiency. Outside of Ja’Borri McGhee and Hubbard, no player on the Mississippi State roster shoots above 30% from three. The team also lacks offensive creators, which could stall the offense if Vanderbilt slows Hubbard down.
If Vanderbilt can survive the rebounding battle, it should win comfortably. Mississippi State has been inconsistent all season, and the Bulldogs should struggle against Vanderbilt’s offense.
