The TCU Horned Frogs face off with the Baylor Bears in a cross-state Big 12 matchup.
This is the second matchup between these two teams this season. TCU picked up a 69-63 victory during the first game, which occurred on Jan. 3 on TCU’s home court.
Baylor is as a 3.5-point home favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook with the game total set at 151.5 points. TCU is a +154 underdog.
TCU vs. Baylor prediction, preview
TCU is off to a 12-7 start, including a 2-4 record in the Big 12. While the Horned Frogs won their last game, they had lost four straight prior to that. TCU is 10-9 against the spread, and the game total has gone under in 11 of its 19 games.
Jamie Dixon’s squad is scoring 79.1 points per game, which ranks 127th among DI college basketball teams. TCU also ranks 147th in offensive rating, 149th in field goal percentage, 196th in three-point percentage, and 57th is assists per game. Opponents are scoring 69.3 points per game against the Horned Frogs, which ranks 72nd in college basketball. TCU also ranks 43rd in defensive rating, 125th in opponents’ field goal percentage, 176th in opponents’ three-point percentage, and 14th in blocks per game.
David Punch leads the team in scoring with 14.6 points per game to go with 7.6 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per game. Xavier Edmonds and Jayden Pierre each also average in double figures, with both players shooting 41.2% or better on threes. Micah Robinson is not far behind with 9.9 points and 5.1 rebounds, while Brock Harding pitches in 8.4 points and a team-high 6.4 assists per game.
Baylor is 11-7, but has slipped to 1-5 in conference play. The Bears are looking to snap a two-game losing streak, and have dropped five of their past six games. These losses have come against Texas Tech, Kansas, Houston, Iowa State, TCU, Memphis and St. Johns.
Scott Drew’s squad leans heavily on its offense. Baylor is averaging 86.3 points per game, which ranks 26th in DI. The Bears also rank 27th in offensive rating, 33rd in field goal percentage, 47th in three-point percentage, 56th in assists, and 28th in offensive rebounds per game. Opponents are scoring 75.9 points per game against the Bears, which ranks 242nd. Baylor ranks 212th in defensive rating, 158th in opponents’ field goal percentage, 263rd in opponents’ three-point percentage, and 345th in offensive rebounds allowed.
Cameron Carr averages 20.4 points and 5.3 rebounds per game, while shooting 42.9% from beyond the three-point arc. Tounde Yessoufou adds 17.5 points and 5.8 rebounds, while tallying a team-best 2.2 steals per game. Dan Skillings Jr. and Obi Agbim also average in double-figures, with Agbim posting a team-best 3.4 assists per game and shooting 39% on threes. Isaac Williams and Michael Rataj each add 9.7 points per game, while Caden Powell leads the team with 7.3 rebounds off the bench.
TCU vs. Baylor pick, best bet
TCU won 69-63 in the first matchup. The Horned Frogs out-rebounded Baylor by nine and led for 93% of the game. Baylor struggled to shoot the basketball, connecting on just 37% of its shots from the field and 24% of its threes. This was Baylor’s fourth-lowest scoring total on the season.
This round is on Baylor’s home-court, where the team is 8-3. That said, the team’s struggled lately after a relatively easy non-conference schedule.
TCU deserves credit for the victory in the first matchup, but getting a win while shooting 38% from the field and 40% from beyond the three-point arc is not sustainable.
These teams have looked relatively equal on the season, but I trust Drew to make the proper adjustments in the second matchup. Additionally, Baylor’s offense should be too much with the home crowd behind them.
