It’s a father vs. son coaching showdown on Saturday in the Big East. Rick Pitino will lead St. John’s (14-5, 7-1) into a matchup with Richard Pitino and Xavier (11-8, 3-5). To make things even more enticing, the former is on the verge of his 900th career head coaching win.
Which Pitino will come out on top this weekend? St. John’s enters as 8.5-point favorites (-105) over Xavier. The total is set at 162.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Saturday’s game between the Red Storm and the Musketeers.
St. John’s vs. Xavier prediction, preview
Despite entering the year with high expectations, things haven’t gone according to plan for St. John’s. A lack of impressive wins, and some unforeseen defeats, have bumped the Red Storm out of the AP Poll. With that being said, this group has looked sharp in recent weeks. The Johnnies have reeled off five straight victories, including a 15-point comeback vs. Seton Hall on Tuesday.
The defending Big East champs are a work in progress. Part of the reason for their struggles is due to chemistry. There’s almost too much talent on this roster; figuring out who plays which role has been a challenge. One thing is still a guarantee: Zuby Ejiofor is the heart and soul of this team. Through 19 games, the center is averaging 15.8 points, 7.3 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.9 blocks and 1.2 steals. That level of all-around production puts the senior in a rare class of elite big men.
The bigger issue for St. John’s is in the backcourt. There’s no traditional point guard at Pitino’s disposal, which has led to some interesting lineups. SJU’s leading ball handlers have been transfers Oziyah Sellers and Ian Jackson. The duo, while capable scorers, aren’t exactly elite distributors. Still, it’s fair to believe that better days are ahead. The Red Storm possess the 29th-highest adjusted offensive efficiency margin (122.3) per KenPom.
Xavier, even more so than St. John’s, is a difficult group to figure out. As is the case with any new head coach, this roster underwent a drastic overhaul over the summer. It’s fair to expect some growing pains for a relatively unproven team filled with various moving parts. Still, Richard did a solid job filling the depth chart with talent. That’s lent itself to some quality performances, such as four Quad-II wins.
With that being said, it would take a remarkable run for the Musketeers to even think about March Madness. The most important thing for the program is gradual improvement during the second half. Taking down one of the Big East’s best programs would mark a major step forward. Xavier’s net rating sits at +2.3, tied with Georgetown for second-worst in the conference.
If X is going to pull off an upset, it’ll likely require a solid showing from Tre Carroll. The senior leads this group in scoring with 17.3 points per game. In fact, five other Xavier players are averaging double-digits. The issue is depth; the Musketeers don’t have many reliable scorers off the bench. With that being said, they are a jack of all trades team. Xavier ranks 95th in offensive efficiency and 91st in defensive efficiency on KenPom.
St. John’s vs. Xavier pick, best bet
For all of Xavier’s flaws, there’s something to be said about being a well-rounded club. This crew has also played much better at home, going 9-3 at the Cintas Center. On the flip side, St. John’s remains a wildcard. For all their recent success, more consistency is needed before viewing the Red Storm as a sure thing. I still think Rick picks up win #900 this afternoon, but his guys will have to fight for it.
