Illinois vs. Purdue College Basketball prediction, preview
Purdue returns home on Saturday afternoon following a 1-1 trip to the west coast. The Boilermakers got the win against USC, but were handed their second loss of the season at UCLA, blowing a late lead and falling in the final seconds. I don’t love backing teams coming off a long road trip with far travel, but I do buy into the bounce-back angle for Purdue here coming off a loss.
When Purdue took its only other loss of the season to Iowa State, it followed it up with a 28-point win over Minnesota, a 20-point win over Marquette, and then a 28-point win over Auburn. I’m expecting some of that fire from the Boilermakers on their home floor, where they are 10-1.
Illinois has been very good on the road, going 4-0 and 3-1 ATS. However, the Illini have been favored in each of those games, and will now be a road underdog for the first time. The only other two occasions priced as a dog this season, Illinois lost to UConn and beat Tennessee, both on neutral floors.
These teams rank nearly identically on KenPom. Purdue has the nation’s third-ranked offense to go with the 19th-ranked defense. Illinois sits atop the country in offensive ranking, and comes in 23rd on the defensive side of the ball. But the big piece here is that the Fighting Illini will be without starting point guard Kylan Boswell. The senior is a huge piece of what his team does on both sides of the ball, averaging 14.3 points, 4.2 rebounds and 3.4 assists in almost 32 minutes per game.
While Illinois was able to dominate Maryland without Boswell, this is the type of game where his absence should show up. The bench shortens, and the Illini will be looking for a true point guard presence in a tough road atmosphere, not to mention, going up against elite Purdue guard play. We opened this one with the Boilermakers laying 2.5 at home, and I agree with the move.
Give me Purdue to take care of business and send a message at home.
CBB Pick: Purdue -3.5 (-110)
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