UPDATE: Saturday’s Warriors vs. Timberwolves matchup has been postponed and rescheduled for Sunday at 5:30 p.m. EST, per ESPN’s Shams Charania.
As part of NBA Rivals Week, we get a rematch of last year’s Western Conference Semifinals as the Golden State Warriors head to the frigid Great Lakes region for a date with the Minnesota Timberwolves. The outlook for the visitors has shifted greatly over the last few days in the wake of injuries to key rotation pieces, but Steph Curry remains the kind of talent who can put the team on his back. How will he fare against the star duo of Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle today?
Here’s a Warriors vs. Timberwolves prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Saturday’s game.
Warriors vs. Timberwolves prediction, preview
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors had won six of their last eight heading into Monday and showed signs of potentially turning the corner heading into trade deadline season. However, disaster struck that night when Jimmy Butler popped an Achilles against his former team, and while the Dubs went on to beat the Heat, the damage was done. Now, Jonathan Kuminga has also been injured and will miss time, meaning a 25-21 record may quickly take a turn for the worse.
The Warriors post 116.8 PPG (14th), moving the ball well with 28.8 assists (sixth), the fourth-best AST/FGM and 14th-ranked AST/TO ratio. Unsurprisingly, the team paces the NBA in both three-point attempts and made threes, hitting 36.7% of their shots from beyond the arc. With an efficiency mark from two as well, Golden State’s 55.5% eFG% ranks eighth-best in the league overall. While not a dominant rebounding side with 51.2 per outing (23rd), the Warriors are quite solid defensively as well. They give up 114.2 PPG (10th), are fourth in steals and sixth in opponent turnovers per game as well. However, how many of those numbers stick without Butler and Kuminga remains uncertain, especially given that Butler accounted for 20.0 PPG and nearly five assists a night as the team’s second-leading scorer while Kuminga’s 5.9 rebounds are a team-best.
Overall, the Warriors are ninth in NETRTG at +2.7 and 16th in pace.
That leaves Steph Curry to shoulder even more of the load amidst a resurgent campaign. The future Hall of Famer averages 27.4 PPG with 4.9 assists, pacing the league in three-point attempts and made shots from downtown while shooting 39.2% from deep. Brandin Podziemski, already third on the Warriors with 12.2 PPG, will likely assume a larger role without Butler. De’Anthony Melton has quietly produced double-digit points when healthy, and Moses Moody should see more involvement in Butler’s absence as well. Of course, Draymond Green also remains a staple in the starting lineup with 8.7 PPG, 5.8 rebounds and a team-best 5.2 assists.
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Timberwolves’ record of 27-18 isn’t that far off from that of the Warriors. The chasm will likely grow over the coming weeks, but shaking off a four-game losing streak is imperative heading into tonight’s action. Thankfully, the Wolves are a strong 15-7 on their home court and have a clean injury report as well, putting them at a significant advantage.
Minnesota has one of the NBA’s best attacks with 120.0 PPG (third), logging an eFG% of 56.3% which ranks fifth-best in the league. Efficient shooting of 37.2% from three (fourth) and 56.7% from two (third) make the Timberwolves a real threat even when they don’t get up a ton of attempts, and they’re also sixth in free throws per game as well. The Wolves rack up 26.8 assists a night (11th) with the 12th-ranked AST/TO ratio, too. They’re also a fairly strong rebounding team with 54.3 per game (11th), and Minnesota allows just 115.1 PPG on the other end (12th). This recent skid isn’t indicative of this roster’s upside by any means since the T-Wolves are largely quite talented on both ends of the floor.
Minnesota falls sixth in NETRTG at +4.8 and 11th in pace as well.
Superstar Anthony Edwards is having a career-best campaign with 29.6 PPG, shooting 40.6% from three-point range while pulling down 5.1 boards per game. He’s delivered strong two-way play, and co-star Julius Randle has fully hit his stride here with 22.6 PPG, 7.0 rebounds and 5.4 assists per contest. Jaden McDaniels’ offense has taken a step forward with 15.1 PPG and a scorching 41.7% mark from three while playing excellent defense, and Rudy Gobert’s double-double of 11.0 PPG and 11.3 rebounds marks a team-best in the latter category. Plus, Donte DiVincenzo and Naz Reid each play key roles with double-digit scoring.
Warriors vs. Timberwolves pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Timberwolves as 5.5-point home favorites tonight with -218 odds on the Moneyline. The Warriors are +180 ML underdogs with the game total set at 237.5 points. Betting splits show 77% of straight wagers on Minnesota to win with 51% picking the under on the total.
The oddsmakers may know best, but I feel this spread is way too close given the state of both rosters. The T-Wolves are awesome on both ends and have much more support throughout the rotation with their litany of role players along with a second star in Randle. Edwards doesn’t have to shoulder the weight of the world in any given game, and that puts his team in a much more advantageous position in comparison to these Warriors. With Butler’s season over, Curry basically has to do it all himself until other teammates step up. Buddy Hield had 25 points two games ago and Melton scored 22 in the Dubs’ last game, but the Warriors simply don’t possess the kind of talent to keep this roster afloat in the meantime. Butler’s presence in all phases of the game as a scorer, facilitator and defender was key to the group’s identity. Losing him, along with the fourth-leading scorer and top rebounder in Kuminga (albeit not for the year) leaves Golden State depleted. This group lost by eight points to the Mavericks and 18 points to the Raptors across the last two games without Butler.
The outlook won’t improve tonight against a far superior and much deeper Minnesota squad. The Timberwolves should comfortably cover, which has me comfortable taking a wider alt line for better value as well.
Top pick: MIN Timberwolves -9.5 (+164)
