With three games left in the NFL season, 28 teams have been eliminated and four remain. The New England Patriots, Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Rams, and Seattle Seahawks are all here through a combination of dominant offenses capable of putting up points and sufficient defenses to match, and each would be a worthy Super Bowl victor. But only one team can lift the Lombardi Trophy on February 8.
Whichever team wins the Super Bowl will, of course, have to win its conference championship game first. Conference championship games can reveal a lot about the state of a team’s offense, though not everything: in seven of the last 10 seasons, the team that scored the most points during Conference Championship weekend ended up losing the Super Bowl. Last season, though, it was certainly instructive: the Philadelphia Eagles’ offense scored a record 55 points in the NFC Championship Game before trouncing the Kansas City Chiefs, 40-22, to claim the Lombardi Trophy.
Which of the four teams will make an early statement this weekend? DraftKings Sportsbook has odds on both the highest- and lowest-scoring teams.
Denver Broncos (+550): O/U 18.5 Total Points
With Bo Nix, the Broncos surely would’ve had better odds of being the highest-scoring team during the conference championship, given that they were the second-highest scoring team during the Divisional Round. But Nix broke his ankle late in the overtime win over the Buffalo Bills, leaving Jarrett Stidham — who hasn’t thrown a pass since 2023 — under center against a Patriots defense that allowed the fourth-fewest points during the regular season and has given up just 19 points in two playoff games. Without the threat of Nix’s deep ball or his mobility, Sean Payton will likely lean heavily on quick passes and handoffs despite managing a running back corps that gained the fewest yards among the remaining teams and posted the second-worst efficiency. It won’t be easy: New England allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards in the league and missed the fewest tackles.
Los Angeles Rams (+250): O/U 22.5 Total Points
The Rams were the league’s highest-scoring team during the regular season, averaging 30.5 points per game, but they managed to put up just 20 points against the Chicago Bears last weekend, the fewest of any Divisional Round winner. The talent on Los Angeles’ offense speaks for itself: Matthew Stafford led the league in passing yards and touchdown passes, Puka Nacua finished second in receiving yards, Davante Adams led the league in touchdown catches, and Kyren Williams and Blake Corum are a solid running back tandem. The Rams mostly have long odds because the Seahawks’ defense is strong, with a secondary led by a pair of elite defensive backs in Devon Witherspoon and Defensive Rookie of the Year finalist Nick Emmanwori and a front seven that held opponents to a league-low 3.7 yards per carry.
New England Patriots (+225): O/U 23.5 Total Points
The Patriots had the league’s second-leading offense in the regular season, averaging 28.8 points per game behind a monster rushing attack that scored the league’s fourth-most touchdowns on the ground. New England’s quarterback is MVP candidate Drake Maye, who led the league in completion percentage over expectation by a larger margin than that between second-place Brock Purdy and 16th-place Stafford. Maye made the elite Houston Texans secondary look silly during the Divisional Round, helping his team score 27 points, though the Patriots also benefited from four C.J. Stroud interceptions. He’ll have an even tougher test against a Denver defense that allowed an even lower completion percentage and fewer yards per attempt than Houston while allowing the second-fewest rushing yards.
Seattle Seahawks (+145): O/U 23.5 Total Points
Seattle didn’t lag too far behind, putting up 28.4 points per game in the regular season by scoring seven defensive or special teams touchdowns, and kicker Jason Myers made the league’s second-most field goals. The Seahawks’ offense was ruthlessly efficient: Sam Darnold finished second in yards per attempt, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba led the league in receiving yards. Seattle opened the Divisional Round with a Rashid Shaheed kick return touchdown and never looked back, scoring a league-high 41 points, though it suffered a major blow when team touchdown leader Zach Charbonnet tore his ACL. It also has a friendlier matchup: Los Angeles gave up the most passing yards and passing touchdowns of any remaining team, as well as the most rushing yards and yards per attempt.
Best Bet
Team with the Highest Total Points in the Conference Championship Games (1.25.26): Los Angeles Rams (+250)
Getting the highest-scoring regular-season offense at nearly twice the odds as its opponent despite that opponent having an implied total just one point higher feels like a steal. After each missed time late in the regular season with injuries, both Adams and tight end Tyler Higbee should be healthier, and Nacua put up 12 catches for 225 yards and two scores the last time he played at Lumen Field. Not having Charbonnet will make it more difficult for the Seahawks to punch it in at the goal line, putting more of a burden on Darnold, who performed poorly against the Rams in the 2025 postseason. The AFC Championship projects to be a gritty defensive battle between two run-first teams, and weather conditions will be far better in Seattle than in Denver.
