As we near the halfway point of this Unrivaled season, there are some big head-to-head matchups to settle. The Mist and the Rose are two of the four teams tied at 3-2, and this game will have a huge impact on the playoff picture.
The Mist are narrow 1.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Rose sits at -105 on the moneyline. The game’s total is set at 142.5 points.
Let’s get into my prediction and pick for this Unrivaled matchup.
Mist vs. Rose Preview
The Mist will likely lean on their All-Star scoring duo once again on Friday night. Allisha Gray and Breanna Stewart have combined for 42.6 points per game on strong efficiency, and they can get it done all over the court. The question is how the rest of the roster fits around them. Veronica Burton and Alanna Smith offer strong defense but haven’t been knocking down their shots. Li Yueru is limited in her usage. And, predictably, Arike Ogunbowale’s inefficient ball dominance is creating major problems. It’s a team that has a lot of questions.
The Rose has similar problems. Chelsea Gray has been on an absolute tear, putting up 30.6 points per game on blistering 56/60/93 splits. Her astonishing performances have left jaws on the floor every night.
Still, despite those absurd numbers, she can’t do it all by herself. Kahleah Copper, supposed to be the No. 2 scoring option, has missed three games with lingering injuries. Azurá Stevens and Shakira Austin are there to grab boards and protect the paint, not to score. Ditto for Lexie Hull and Sug Sutton, two accomplished perimeter defenders who can’t create many offensive advantages.
It’s a precarious roster build for both teams. Leaning on star talent works better in a 3v3 format, but when everyone has stars, that advantage is diminished. Unrivaled also makes it easier to pick on a team’s weakest link. Bad defenders get isolated and have less help. Bad scorers get left open while their more skilled teammates are double-teamed. This game comes down to which team can press the other’s buttons at the right time.
Mist vs. Rose Pick
The key matchup for me is Breanna Stewart and Azurá Stevens. Stewie likes to work in the post, using her size and length to create easy shots for herself on the low block. Stevens has been great defending the block through her Unrivaled and WNBA careers, and will give her a good challenge down low. It’s enough of an obstacle for Stewie for me to believe in the Rose pulling the upset on Friday night.
