Just over seven months ago, the Oklahoma City Thunder hosted the Indiana Pacers in the first winner-take-all game in the NBA Finals since 2016. The game started off hot: it was tied seven minutes into the game when Tyrese Haliburton stepped back and tore his Achilles tendon, changing the trajectory of the game — and the Pacers’ 2025-26 season — in an instant.
Seven months later, the teams’ positions could hardly be more drastically different. Though they’ve stagnated as of late after a historically hot start, the Thunder are 37-8 and have a six-game lead atop the Western Conference. Indiana, meanwhile, is 10-35, dead last in the East. While Oklahoma City is expected to make another deep playoff run, the Pacers have their eyes set on the NBA Draft lottery, hoping that Darryn Peterson will don yellow and navy this fall.
Both teams have long injury reports: for the Thunder, Alex Caruso (adductor), Isaiah Hartenstein (calf), Ajay Mitchell (abdominal), Jalen Williams (hamstring), and Aaron Wiggins (groin) are all out, but at least Jaylin Williams (glute) will play. For Indiana, Bennedict Mathurin (thumb) and Obi Toppin (foot) remain out alongside Haliburton, and Quenton Jackson (ankle) is questionable.
Oklahoma City is a 15.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook (-1000 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 226.5. The Pacers are +650 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down the NBA Finals rematch and offer my prediction.
Indiana Pacers at Oklahoma City Thunder preview, prediction
As it turns out, losing an All-NBA point guard for the entire season — as well as a capable center in free agency — tends to hurt a team’s ability to win games. But despite the miserable season, Indiana has plenty to be excited about: Pascal Siakam has had an All-Star-caliber season, averaging 23.8 points per game on solid 48-39-68 shooting splits, and Jay Huff has proven to be a capable defensive anchor, entertaining the crowd with reverse dunk after reverse dunk. The Pacers still need to upgrade their center depth, but their priorities are clear: survive the season and jump back into contention once Haliburton is healthy.
The Thunder, meanwhile, have won seven of their last eight games, winning by 20 or more points in four of their last five and redeeming their three prior losses against the San Antonio Spurs. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to do Gilgeous-Alexander things, averaging 32.0 points per game and leading the league in made field goals, and it’s a testament to Oklahoma City’s depth that it is on a 67-win pace despite Jalen Williams and Hartenstein each missing 21 games and Caruso missing 13. To boot, the Thunder arguably have the best asset pool in basketball in case Sam Presti wants to be active at the trade deadline.
Pacers at Thunder pick, best bet
Indiana made a run to the Finals last season behind the strength of an offense that ranked seventh after New Year’s Day, but its situation could hardly be more different in 2025-26. This season, the Pacers have scored just 107.8 points per 100 possessions, 1.6 fewer than the next-worst team, and even in their last 10 games, in which they’re a respectable 4-6, they still have the league’s second-worst offense. Their defense is worse, too — 10 points per 100 possessions offensively isn’t the difference between a title contender and lottery fodder — but their main issues are their lack of rebounding and inefficient shooting. Oklahoma City has been marginally worse on offense than it was last season, but its defense has been even better.
One of Indiana’s issues might be mitigated somewhat tonight with Hartenstein absent; since he went down on December 28, the Thunder rank third-to-last in rebounding percentage, behind even the Pacers, and they’ve allowed the fourth-most second-chance points in the league across that span. Indiana’s inefficient shooting, however, isn’t likely to fix itself: even with Hartenstein absent, Oklahoma City has allowed a below-average number of shots in the restricted area while limiting opponents to the second-lowest percentage at the rim and the lowest from both the non-restricted paint and the midrange.
Hartenstein may be one of the league’s best defenders, ranking fourth by DARKO D-DPM, but Chet Holmgren (ninth) isn’t too far behind. Indiana, meanwhile, has been a slightly below-average rim protecting team, with its anchor, Huff, ranking merely 153rd by DARKO D-DPM. Gilgeous-Alexander has been the second-most efficient finisher among the 51 guards with at least 100 total shots at the rim, as well as the most efficient from floater range, so he should be salivating. The Thunder have also been dominant off of turnovers and in transition, and despite playing the same pass-heavy style that they did last season, the Pacers have turned it over 1.2 more times per game and have allowed two more points per game of of their giveaways. They’ve also been the league’s second-most foul-prone team, and Oklahoma City has been elite at drawing contact and at free-throw shooting.
Shooting won’t come easy to either team: the Thunder have given up the eighth-fewest wide-open threes per game and Indiana the third-fewest. However, Oklahoma City has also been slightly better at producing uncontested tries than the Pacers have, and it is more due to benefit from shooting luck than Indiana is since it has shot the ball less accurately and conceded a higher percentage on wide-open looks. The Thunder have more raw shooting talent, as their three qualified shooters rank 22nd (Gilgeous-Alexander), 52nd (Holmgren), and 92nd (Mitchell) in expected three-point shooting differential, while the Pacers are represented by Siakam (61st) and Andrew Nembhard (71st). Plus, raw distance from opposing shooters isn’t everything: Oklahoma City has registered the most three-point contests, and Indiana has registered the fewest.
Ordinarily, the Thunder’s rebounding woes would ward me away from taking them against a 15.5-point spread, but they’ve won seven of their last eight games — four by at least 16 points — while being out-rebounded by an average of 6.75 boards per game, recording 16-plus-point wins in twice in games in which they got out-rebounded by at least 16. If Oklahoma City can blow out a dominant rebounding team with league average shooting, it can definitely blow out an awful rebounding team with awful shooting.
