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How the public is betting Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett at UFC 324

How the public is betting Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett at UFC 324

Published:

By: Cooper Albers

The UFC enters a new era on Saturday night. 

Lightweight stars Justin “The Highlight” Gaethje and Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett will collide for the interim title in the main event of UFC 324 in Las Vegas, the promotion’s first event on Paramount Plus. 

Pimblett, a promising newcomer, enters as a -230 moneyline favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook in his first UFC title fight. Gaethje, the former interim champ and perennial human highlight reel, sits as a +190 underdog. The total is set at 2.5 rounds.

Let’s dive into the betting splits for Saturday night’s main event.

Betting Splits

Pimblett has controlled much of the betting action, capturing a whopping 72% of total bets and 58% of the handle, while Gaethje lags as an underdog with just 28% of wagers and 42% of the handle.

On the UFC 324 main card, the Scouser trails behind Jean Silva (80%) and Sean O’Malley (83%) for the highest percentage of total bets. O’Malley has also amassed a main-card-high 83% of the handle for his co-main event bout against Song Yadong, which he enters as a -205 favorite. 

Pimblett (23–3, 7 KOs, 10 SUB) has gone 7–0 since his Octagon debut in Sept. 2021, and he’s coming off a dominant third-round TKO of Michael Chandler last April. Gaethje (26–5, 20 KOs) is a longtime fan-favorite, famous for his reckless fight style that’s produced instant classics with just about every star his division has to offer. He rebounded from his last-second knockout from Max Holloway at UFC 300 with a unanimous decision win over Rafael Fiziev last March.

As for the finish, Pimblett holds +350 odds to secure a knockout and sits at +130 to win by submission. Meanwhile, a Gaethje knockout is priced at +400. 

Cooper is a Brooklyn-based writer who joined DraftKings in 2025. A recent graduate of Jay-Z’s Roc Nation School of Sports at Long Island University, he served as sports editor of the campus paper and lead sideline reporter for the men’s basketball team.
Disclaimer

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.