Kicking off across tonight’s exciting eight-game NBA slate, the Houston Rockets will take on the Detroit Pistons. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET, and this will be the second and final matchup between these two teams this season.
Both organizations have adopted a physical, defensive-minded approach and have appeared like contenders in the early stages of the season. The Pistons picked up a 115-111 victory in the first matchup, but this was just the second game of the season for both sides.
Looking at the odds for tonight’s matchup, the Pistons enter as 4.5-point favorites and hold -180 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Rockets hold +150 odds of getting the outright victory with the game total set at 217.5 points.
This article will look at a preview and prediction for the Friday night matchup.
Rockets at Pistons prediction, preview
The Houston Rockets are off to a 26-16 start to the season and sit in fourth place in the Western Conference. They are on the second half of a back-to-back after a frustrating overtime loss to the Philadelphia 76ers last night. This snapped a three-game winning streak leading into the matchup. On the season, Houston is 20-22 against the spread, and the game total is 20-21-1 to the over/under.
The Rockets score at the 12th-best rate in the NBA, posting 117.1 points per game. They rank fifth in offensive rating, sixth in field goal percentage, fourth in three-point percentage, and rebound at the greatest rate in the league. Defensively, opponents are scoring the fourth-fewest points at 111.0 per game. Houston ranks eighth in defensive rating, seventh in opponents’ field goal percentage, 12th in opponents’ three-point percentage, and plays at the third slowest pace in the league.
While their clutch time offense still needs some work, Kevin Durant has made a huge impact in improving this. The four-time scoring champion is averaging a team-high 26.5 points per game, along with 5.4 rebounds, 4.6 assists, and shooting 40.4% on three-point attempts. Alperen Sengun adds 21.3 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 6.4 assists, although he has cooled off a bit from his incredible start to the season. Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr, Reed Sheppard, and Tari Eason have also shown encouraging progress in their development. Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams will remain sidelined tonight.
The Detroit Pistons remain at the top of the Eastern Conference with a 32-10 record on the year. They enter this game on a four-game winning streak, and have picked up victories in seven of their last eight. Detroit has gone 22-20 against the spread this season, and the game total has gone under in 24 of their 42 games played.
Offensively, the Pistons are scoring 117.2 points per game, which ranks 11th in the NBA. They rank 12th in offensive rating, seventh in field goal percentage, 18th in three-point percentage, and 13th in pace. Detroit is holding teams to the third-fewest points per game, at 109.9 per contest. They also rank second in defensive rating, second in opponents’ field goal percentage, and fourth in opponents’ three-point percentage allowed.
Cade Cunningham headlines the attack, posting averages of 25.7 points, 9.8 assists, and 5.8 rebounds per game. The Oklahoma State product is officially listed as questionable after missing the previous game due to illness and a hip injury. Cunningham was present at this morning’s shootaround. Caris LeVert is considered doubtful for the matchup, while Ron Holland and Duncan Robinson are listed as probable. Robinson leads the team in three-point production, connecting on 40.7% of his three-point attempts while launching 7.3 perimeter shots per game. Jalen Duren has also taken a significant leap this season, posting averages of 17.8 points and 10.9 rebounds while setting the tone defensively. Ausar Thompson, Isaiah Stewart, and Jaden Ivey also play a role in the rotation.
Rockets at Pistons pick, best bet
While 217.5 is an extremely low total by NBA standards, my lean would be toward the under still hitting. These are two of the best defenses in the league, and both sides are content leaning on defense-first mindsets en route to a victory. Both operate primarily in the paint, ranking 27th and 29th in three-point attempts per game, and rank 13th and 28th in pace. The final score finished at 226 in the first matchup of the season, but both defenses have improved since then, and Houston is on the second night of a back-to-back tonight.
But I am backing the Pistons to pick up their second win against this Rockets’ team this season and cover the 4.5-point spread. They have the identity to match Houston’s strengths and will let the Rockets’ physicality or rebounding abilities be bothersome. Houston is coming off a grueling overtime loss to the Philadelphia 76ers last night, in which all the starters logged notable minutes. Kevin Durant headlined this with 44 minutes on the floor.
In contrast, the Pistons last played on Wednesday, and Cunningham last played on Monday. With a win already notched against this Rockets team, a rest advantage, and arriving in better form of late, this is an encouraging matchup for the Pistons.
The Rockets are just 1-3 against the spread this season on the second night of a back-to-back. They also have not shown a particularly impressive ability to bounce back this year, going 7-8 against the spread following a loss.
Count on the interior production of the Pistons to match the Rockets’ physical interior style and for this to take away their top advantage. Cade Cunningham is capable of going score-for-score with Kevin Durant at this stage of their careers, and Detroit has been getting encouraging production from some of their X-factor type matchups of late. Look for Detroit to pick up another statement win and continue to solidify its standing as a legitimate title threat.
