The Penn State Nittany Lions host the Wisconsin Badgers in a Thursday night Big Ten battle. The game tips off at 7:00 p.m. ET in State College, PA.
The Badgers are listed as 5.5-point road favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at O/U 160.5 points. Let’s dive into a full preview, prediction, and pick for this Big Ten showdown.
Penn State vs. Wisconsin prediction, preview
Penn State has had a horrific start to its Big Ten campaign. The Nittany Lions are a shocking 0-7 in conference play, after going 9-2 in the non-conference slate. Last season was also a struggle for Penn State, going 6-14 in conference play, the second-worst record in the league. However, this season, the Nittany Lions seem doomed for one of the worst seasons in modern program history. After winning an NCAA Tournament game in 2023 under head coach Micah Shrewsberry, Shrewsberry left for the Notre Dame job, and Penn State hired Mike Rhoades. This is going to make three straight losing seasons for Rhoades in the Big Ten, with the program plunging further into disarray. Freshman guard Kayden Mingo has led the way, but the talent around him is nowhere near up to par.
Wisconsin has been a consistently good program under Greg Gard, despite struggling to advance in the NCAA Tournament the past few years. Gard has made the NCAA Tournament in six of his eight years in charge of the program, but has not made it back to the Sweet 16 after making it his first full year in charge. Unfortunately for Gard, arguably his best-ever team was in 2019-20 when the tournament was cancelled because of COVID. This season, Wisconsin is once again a tournament contender out of the Big Ten, but is not among the elites in the conference. The Badgers rank a respectable 40th in KenPom and are led by the great backcourt duo of Nick Boyd and John Blackwell.
Penn State vs. Wisconsin pick
My best bet for this game is for Penn State and Wisconsin to go over the total of 160.5 points. This Wisconsin team is not what typically comes to mind when you think of Wisconsin basketball. The hard-nosed defense, plenty of ball movement teams of the Frank Kaminsky era no longer exist. The Badgers rank 37th in the nation in offensive rating and 51st in adjusted tempo. They are led by their standout guards, who want to push the ball up the court and create plays in transition.
Boyd and Blackwell should put points on the board in bunches against a poor Penn State defensive group. Penn State ranks 203rd in the nation in defensive rating and is allowing 76.3 PPG, the second-most in the Big Ten this season. Meanwhile, Wisconsin is giving up 75.7 PPG, the fourth-most in the conference. In two of its last three games, Penn State has given up 96 points to Maryland and 93 points to Purdue. Wisconsin should also put up a huge number against them, and the Nittany Lions should score enough to get the game over the total.
