When he eventually retires, Norman Powell will be best known as the sixth man for the title-winning Toronto Raptors and, likely, an All-Star for the Miami Heat when the reserves get announced on February 1. But it wasn’t during his stint with the Raptors or even the LA Clippers that Powell proved he could thrive as a full-time starter. In the intermediary period, Powell spent 67 games with the Portland Trail Blazers and started 66 of them, averaging 18.0 points per game and cashing 38.8% of his three-pointers.
On Thursday, Powell will return to where his star arc began as the Heat travel for a 10 p.m. ET date against the Trail Blazers. Tyler Herro (ribs) is out for Miami, with Kel’el Ware (hamstring) questionable. Meanwhile, Portland has a long injury report: in addition to the players who have been out for most or all of the season, Kris Murray (back) is out and Jrue Holiday (calf), Jerami Grant (Achilles), Robert Williams III (knee), and Sidy Cissoko (illness) are all questionable.
Even with all the injuries, the Trail Blazers are 1.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-125 on the Moneyline), with the point total set at 236.5. The Heat are +105 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ve laid out my three player prop bets from tonight’s game, beginning with one for each team’s likely All-Star, Powell for Miami and Deni Avdija for Portland.
Norman Powell 4+ Three-Pointers Made (+157)
While Powell has displayed a more well-rounded game this season, shooting 54.1% from two-point range (the third-best accuracy of his career) and getting to the free throw line a career-high 5.6 times per night, his bread and butter will always be three-point shooting. This season, he’s launching a career-high 7.3 three-point attempts per game, and though his accuracy has dipped slightly from 45.8% in Miami’s first 22 games to 38.5% in its latest 22, he’s still nailed four or more triples five times in his first 10 games of January, including in three of his last five. The nine three-pointers he hit on January 4 tied for the sixth-most in franchise history.
Just as they did last season, the Trail Blazers have started to heat up behind the strength of a solid defense. So far in January, Portland is 8-2 and owns the league’s 12th-best defensive rating. But just like last season, the Trail Blazers’ charge has been largely a product of luck. In 2024-25, Portland went 23-18 over its last 41 games with the league’s third-best defensive rating, but it benefited from opponents recording the third-lowest percentage on wide-open threes. The disparity is even more extreme this season: while the Trail Blazers allowed the third-fewest uncontested looks last season, they’ve given up the seventh-most so far in January and been fortunate that opponents have converted at the seventh-lowest rate. They can’t bank on that sort of luck against Powell, who’s 84-for-169 (49.7%) on uncontested looks since the start of the 2024-25 season.
Deni Avdija O14.5 Assists + Rebounds (-103)
Avdija is the latest breakout star in the playmaking wing archetype, building off of his strong second half of last season with a near-guaranteed All-Star nod in 2025-26. His first true breakout came after the All-Star break last season, as he averaged 23.3 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 5.2 assists per game across the last 20 games of the season, and so far in 2025-26, he’s increased those averages to 26.2 points, 7.1 boards, and 6.9 assists per game, numbers matched only by Nikola Jokić and Luka Dončić. He’s had at least 15 combined assists + rebounds four times in seven games so far this month and 18 times overall.
As is typical for an Erik Spoelstra team, the Heat have had a strong defense overall, ranking in the top 10 in defensive rating for the sixth consecutive season. However, unlike a typical Miami team, the 2025-26 Heat run and gun, operating at the league’s fastest pace. As a result, their raw numbers aren’t great, as they’ve allowed the eighth-most points, the most rebounds, and the 12th-most assists per game. They could be even worse on the boards than usual if Ware sits; even though they have a marginally higher rebounding percentage without him, he ranks third in total rebounding percentage individually. The last time Avdija faced Miami on November 8, he had 11 rebounds and eight assists.
Andrew Wiggins 2+ Steals (+170)
Wiggins is having somewhat of a late-career renaissance; in addition to making his three-pointers at a career-high rate, he’s also had the third-best defensive season of his career by the composite metrics D-DARKO and D-LEBRON. Among the 163 players who have guarded at least 10 shots per game this season, Wiggins ranks a solid 68th in opponent field goal percentage, and he’s also recording the second-highest steal rate of his career. In his last 13 games, Wiggins has notched multiple steals six times.
Portland is a great matchup for a ball hawk, thanks to its above-average pace and occasional sloppiness with the ball. This season, the Trail Blazers have allowed 10.6 steals per game, 0.8 more than any other team, and individually, Avdija ranks second in turnovers per game, some 42.6% of which have been lost-ball giveaways. That should bode well for Wiggins, who is likely to draw the primary Avdija assignment tonight. The last time these two teams faced off, Wiggins guarded Avdija for 27.4 partial possessions, one of which resulted directly in one of his two steals.
