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2026 Australian Open Pick, Prediction for Carlos Alcaraz vs. Corentin Moutet

2026 Australian Open Pick, Prediction for Carlos Alcaraz vs. Corentin Moutet

Published:

By: Blake Krass

The third round of the Australian Open begins on Thursday night and carries on into Friday morning for American viewers. The No. 2 player in the world, Carlos Alcaraz, takes on No. 37 Corentin Moutet in the third round.

This is my best bet to target on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Alcaraz vs. Moutet match.

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Corentin Moutet Preview

Carlos Alcaraz is one of the greatest forces that men’s tennis has ever seen. When he broke onto the scene in 2021, he became the youngest man to win an ATP 250 tournament and the youngest man to make the US Open quarterfinals at just 18 years old. He has since also become the world’s youngest No. 1 player, the youngest player to win the Surface Slam and countless other records.

However, the one thing that has eluded Alcaraz is success in Australia. He has won multiple titles at the other three Grand Slam venues, but has never even made the semifinals at the Australian Open. It’s unclear exactly what has held Alcaraz back here, as he is excellent on hardcourt at the US Open and dominates everywhere he goes. This year, Alcaraz is out to become the youngest man to win the Career Grand Slam if he can win the title here. The next man in his way is Corentin Moutet.

Corentin Moutet is the No. 37 player in the world, and he has plenty of experience in Grand Slams. Moutet is just 26 years old, but he made his first Australian Open all the way back in 2018. He broke onto the scene at 18 years old, just like Alcaraz, but has not taken the early success to anywhere near the level that Alcaraz has. Moutet has never made it out of the fourth round of a Grand Slam, and has never made it past the third round here in Australia. This would be by far the biggest win of Moutet’s career if he can pull off the massive upset over Alcaraz in this match.

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Corentin Moutet Pick, Best Bet

Carlos Alcaraz seems poised to continue his dominance against Moutet. Alcaraz has won both of his first two matches 3:0, and is -250 to make it a clean sweep against Moutet as well. However, my best bet for this match is for Moutet to cover the full-match spread of +9.5 games. As well as he has played through the first two rounds, Alcaraz won both of those matches by just eight games. So, even when he sweeps the three sets, he has not dominant enough to cover the spread. Alcaraz has been forced into one tiebreak in each of his first two matches. Moutet has never pulled off an upset this big before, but he did steal the first set off Jannik Sinner at Roland Garros last year. He has enough talent and experience to push Alcaraz in at least one set to cover this large game spread.

Best Bet: Corentin Moutet +9.5 Games (-125)

Blake Krass has contributed to DraftKings since 2024, and is a content creator with a specialty in sports betting. Blake primarily focuses on college football and NFL coverage but will also be covering college basketball, the NBA, MLB and more. Prior to arriving at DK, Blake was a sports betting writer for The Action Network.
Disclaimer

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.