The American Express tees off on Thursday in La Quinta, California. Some of the PGA Tour’s best players, including World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, will be making their 2026 debut in this tournament.
This is a look at the best first-round leader bets to make for the event on DraftKings Sportsbook.
The American Express: First Round Leader Picks
The American Express has one of the most unique setups of any tournament on the PGA Tour calendar. Each player will play three separate rounds on three different courses from Thursday to Saturday. The PGA West Stadium Course, the PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course and La Quinta Country Club are the three featured venues for the first three rounds. There will then be a cut after the first 54 holes, followed by a final round at the Stadium Course on Sunday. This is a strong field, featuring five of the top ten players in the world, including the No. 1, Scottie Scheffler. Players who can adapt their game to three different courses in three days will be rewarded.
This week, there is a different first-round leader market for each of the three courses. Due to different course conditions, there is a different first-round leader market for each course. So, I will be giving out my favorite first-round leader bet for each course. On DraftKings Sportsbook, this market is officially listed as “Lowest Round 1 Score” for each course.
La Quinta- Russell Henley FRL (+2000)
The group playing at La Quinta Country Club on Thursday includes Scottie Scheffler, Sam Burns and Ludvig Aberg, three of the best players in the field. However, Russell Henley has a great chance to shoot the best score of that group in the first round. For those three players, it will be their first tournament of the season. Meanwhile, Henley shook off the rust at the Sony Open in Hawaii. He shot a strong opening round of 65 in that event and could put forward a similar score here. Henley has not played at The American Express since 2022, but in that start, he shot an opening round 67 and finished T14. This is a very attackable course, and a player with exquisite iron play and strong putting, like Henley, could go on a big birdie run. Henley ranked sixth in the field in strokes gained on approach last week. Another performance like that on Thursday will give him a great chance to lead the group at La Quinta at the end of the day.
Stadium Course- Nick Dunlap FRL (+3000)
The group starting the tournament on the Stadium Course is the weakest of the three fields. Rather than having to outduel Scottie Scheffler, Ludvig Aberg, Patrick Cantlay, and Ben Griffin to win this group, you need to beat out Harry Hall and Kurt Kitayama. One player who is more than capable of doing that is Nick Dunlap. Dunlap won The American Express in 2024, so he should be full of confidence playing here. At the Sony Open last week, Dunlap blew up on Saturday, but shot an excellent first-round score of 65. Just like Russell Henley, Dunlap was magnificent with his irons in Hawaii. He finished second in the field in strokes gained on approach. If those irons stay dialed in, he should be among the leaders after the opening round in La Quinta.
Nicklaus Tournament Course- Ben Griffin FRL (+1500)
Ben Griffin has been playing great golf over the past several months. To end the FedEx Cup season, he finished T11, T9, T12 and T10 in his final four events. After the Tour Championship, he finished in second at the Procore Championship and won the World Wide Technology Championship to end the calendar year. He started 2026 well with a T19 at the Sony Open in Hawaii. Griffin was just one shot off the lead after the first round in Hawaii after shooting 63. He drove the ball great, ranking sixth in the field in strokes gained off the tee. That was the weakest part of Griffin’s game last year, so if he can keep driving the ball that well, combined with good iron play and putting, he could be one of the top players on the PGA Tour this season. Griffin plays well here in La Quinta, finishing in the top ten each of the past two years. He has a great opportunity to lead the group on the Tournament Course after the first round.
