San Diego State vs. Grand Canyon College Basketball prediction, preview
Both San Diego State and Grand Canyon are led by defense this season, and that’s how I expect this one to play out, particularly early. In the last five games of Mountain West Conference play, we’ve seen the Aztecs limit their opponents to an average of just 29.2 points per game in the first half. The Antelopes have been nearly as good over their last six games in MWC play, holding their opposition to an average of 31.3 points per game when heading into the break.
Both of these teams have played pretty good offenses over that span too, arguably inflating the numbers. Utah State scored 36 in the first half on Saturday against GCU, and New Mexico went for 38 in the game prior. New Mexico also hung 35 on SDSU last week. KenPom ranks Utah State as one of the better offenses in the country, while New Mexico is a solid offense, but plays with much faster pace than these two teams.
Both the Aztecs and ‘Lopes should be looking to slow down the pace in this one and rely on their defenses. KenPom ranks SDSU 83rd on offense, but 24th on defense. The same set of rankings has Grand Canyon as the nation’s 154th offense and 36th defense. In terms of adjusted tempo, KenPom has the Aztecs at 113th and the Antelopes 164th.
If the game is going to be played at a slow pace with the two best units on the floor being the defenses, by far, this one has the makings of a slow start. Put it all together, and I’ll back the first half under.
I do also like San Diego State as the side in the game as well. The Aztecs are 3-0 straight up and ATS in true road games this season, covering by 7.3 points per game, and winning by 11.7 points. Grand Canyon is off Saturday’s big upset victory over Utah State, and could be in store for a letdown spot against a more talented team. From a metrics standpoint, that 154th-ranked offense of GCU should struggle more against an elite defense than SDSU will.
