In the Big Ten on Wednesday, the No. 11 Illinois Fighting Illini welcome the Maryland Terrapins for a conference matchup at 7 p.m. EST. The home team will dealing with a major loss of a star guard due to a broken hand, so how they respond to his absence will prove intriguing moving forward.
These programs have faced off 25 times in history, with the Terrapins holding a 17-8 advantage. They’ve also won each of the last two contests and are 7-2 on the road as they will be tonight..
Here’s a prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Maryland vs. Illinois on Wednesday, January 21.
Maryland vs. Illinois prediction, preview
Maryland Terrapins
The Maryland Terrapins were a fan-favorite during last year’s tournament, but they’ve fallen off since. At 8-10 overall and 1-6 in conference play, the situation in College Park continues to worsen by the game. While they won their last game over Penn State, the Terps lost four straight prior to it and don’t have a single Quad 1 or Quad 2 win, going just 2-2 against Quad 3 programs.
Maryland averages 74.5 PPG (194th) while allowing 77.8 PPG on the other end (256th). Shooting efficiency is a real problem with a 48.1% eFG% (294th), including a 47.1% mark from two and 32.8% mark from three. The Terrapin play at just an average pace and don’t move the ball well, dishing 10.6 assists per game (341) with the 342nd-ranked AST/TO ratio. Those turnovers are a major issue with 13.1 per game (279th). On the glass, Maryland pulls down 36.7 boards (103rd) with 10.6 OREB per contest. There are very few positives to glean from the numbers overall.
Maryland ranks 114th per KenPom.com and has a NetRtg of just +5.27.
The absence of forward Pharell Payne continues to haunt this team, especially since his 17.5 PPG were a team-best prior to his injury earlier this season. Without him, David Coit’s 15.4 PPG lead the way while the guard shoots 40.9% from three-point range with 2.8 assists, while Darius Adams’ 12.6 PPG make him the team’s only other double-digit scorer. Forward Solomon Washington produces 9.5 points and a team-best 9.4 rebounds, and Elijah Saunders’ 4.6 boards are second-most while pitching in 9.1 points a night.
Illinois Fighting Illini
It’s been a strong campaign for Illinois on the hardwood. At 15-3 and 6-1 in Big Ten play, the program is riding a seven-game winning streak and has strong victories over Quad 1 teams like No. 11 Texas Tech, No. 13 Tennessee and No. 19 Iowa. Are the Fighting Illini a contender come March? Some signs may point to yes.
Illinois posts excellent numbers on both sides of the floor, averaging 85.1 PPG (30th) while allowing 67.4 on the other end (30th). That’s some strong two-way play made possible by a variety of factors. The Fighting Illini have a 55.8% eFG% (41st), shooting a clean 58.8% on two-point attempts but still hitting 10.4 three-pointers per game (22nd) despite shooting just 35.1% from beyond the arc. While they’re only dishing 14.7 assists per game (119th), they have the 51st-ranked AST/TO ratio as well. This group is also quite good on the boards, pulling down 41.8 rebounds per game (12th) with elite offensive rebounding off the glass — their 12.1 OREB per game fall 12th in the country and they post the fourth-best OREB%.
Overall, the Fighting Illini are eighth in the KenPom rankings with a NetRtg of +30.52.
This roster is led by freshman guard Keaton Wagler with a team-high 16.1 PPG and 3.8 assists while shooting 42.1% from three. However, other players will soon need to step up as second-leading scorer Kylan Boswell (14.3 PPG, 3.4 assists) will miss time into February with a fracture in his hand, marking a major loss for the Illini. That could mean a bump for former high school All-American Andrej Stojakovic, who posts 13.5 PPG and 4.4 rebounds. Forward David Mirkovic’s 8.3 rebounds are a team-best while pitching in 12.0 PPG, and Tomislav Ivisic is the only other scorer in double-digits with 10.5 PPG.
Maryland vs. Illinois pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists Illinois as an 18.5-point favorite tonight at home with -2000 odds to win on the Moneyline. Maryland’s odds of an outright upset sit at +1300 with the game total set at 148.5 points.
How the Fighting Illini adapt to the absence of Boswell should prove interesting, but even if they come out a little flat without their second-leading scorer, there’s not much reason to worry about them. This team is dominant at both ends of the floor and has a clear edge in just about every stat compared to tonight’s opponent. Illinois shouldn’t face much resistance from a poor defense and will likely outrebound Maryland with ease while forcing plenty of turnovers against a sloppy unit.
The 18.5-point spread is wide, which makes me just a little bit uncomfortable. However, the Terrapins lost each of their games against opponents ranked in the top-12 nationally by 39, 33 and 18 points, which does feel encouraging. They’ll face an elite team tonight and haven’t even kept contests close against squads of Illinois’ caliber, so I’m going with the Fighting Illini to cover.
