In the moments immediately following the Denver Broncos’ overtime triumph over the Buffalo Bills to advance to the AFC Championship Game for the first time since 2016, the mood was jubilant. They had just hung 33 points on the Bills, just the second time that they’d scored that many points since the start of November, and Bo Nix had put up a solid 279 passing yards and three touchdowns. But the joy didn’t last long: about an hour after the final whistle, Sean Payton returned to the podium and announced that Nix had fractured his ankle on one of the final plays in overtime, leaving Jarrett Stidham with the responsibility of starting in the AFC Championship game on Sunday against the New England Patriots. It’ll be Stidham’s first start since 2023, when he replaced the benched Russell Wilson for the final two weeks of the season.
Beyond the fact that both quarterbacks played their college football at Auburn and a school wearing yellow and green (in Nix’s case, Oregon, and for Stidham, Baylor), there isn’t much of a comparison between these two quarterbacks. Stidham is a journeyman backup with a career 59.4% completion percentage and as many touchdowns as interceptions who also doesn’t add much on the ground, while Nix is a dual-threat quarterback who led the league in game-winning drives. Nix isn’t an elite or particularly aggressive passer — the other three quarterbacks remaining in the playoffs ranked first, second, and fifth in adjusted yards per attempt this season, while Nix ranked 29th — but his numbers are better than those of Stidham. He was better to every zone on the field in 2025 than Stidham in 2023, and he was far more effective with a clean pocket. Stidham was better under pressure in 2023 than Nix in 2025, but New England doesn’t get pressure very frequently regardless.
Any plan that Payton calls for Stidham will likely be more conservative than his calls for Nix, given that Nix completed 33 of his 82 passes of more than 20 air yards for 13 touchdowns and four picks in 2025 and Stidham was just two-for-seven on such throws in his 2023 starts after also struggling with them in college. Since he’s less mobile than Nix, Payton will likely feed him a diet of quick throws designed to get the Broncos’ wideouts in space, but unfortunately for him, the Patriots missed the fewest tackles during the regular season and allowed a below-average number of yards after the catch. Quick throws up the middle to target slot corner Marcus Jones, who allowed the highest passer rating in coverage of New England’s three primary corners, might be the smartest strategy, which would make Stidham a high-floor, low-ceiling passer.
The fact that Stidham’s DFS salary for the featured Millionaire contest is $1,800 cheaper than the most expensive quarterback on the slate — Matthew Stafford ($6,300) — is significant, given that $1,800 is the difference between Kenneth Walker III ($6,200), who averages 13.1 FPTS per game, and Jaleel McLaughlin ($4,400), who averages 3.7 FPTS per game. Stidham would be worth considering if JK Dobbins ($4,000) is unable to return from the Lisfranc injury that he suffered in Week 10, as RJ Harvey ($5,900) and McLaughlin’s mediocrity in the Divisional Round forced Nix to throw 46 times despite Buffalo’s weak run defense and solid secondary. Dobbins is highly unlikely to be anywhere near 100% if he plays, but he was one of the league’s best running backs before getting injured and even a 50% Dobbins is capable of, say, eight carries for 35 yards and a score, which would make trusting Stidham an unappealing proposition.
