Earlier in January, the Atlanta Hawks officially put an end to the Trae Young era, shipping him to the Washington Wizards for C.J. McCollum and Corey Kispert. Since McCollum made his debut, they’ve won just once, as they’re on a four-game losing streak entering tonight’s 8 p.m. ET game against the Memphis Grizzlies, who have their own trade speculation surrounding their mercurial point guard.
The Grizzlies’ Ja Morant returned from his injury on Sunday night and isn’t on the injury report for tonight’s game, though Santi Aldama (knee soreness) — one of only two Memphis players have appeared in each of the team’s 41 games so far — is doubtful. The Hawks continue to be without Kristaps Porziņġis (Achilles tendinitis) and Zaccharie Risacher (knee contusion), who are both set to miss at least another week with trade rumors surrounding them.
Memphis is a 1.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-120 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 239.5. Atlanta, meanwhile, is +100 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down tonight’s inter-conference matchup and offer my prediction.
Atlanta Hawks at Memphis Grizzlies preview, prediction
McCollum hasn’t been the main issue for the Hawks since his arrival: while he hasn’t shot the ball efficiently, especially from deep, 17.0 points per game is more or less in line with his average for the season, and he’s gotten to the free-throw line 5.4 times per contest. The main issue is that Jalen Johnson has slumped since McCollum’s arrival, averaging just 17.6 points per game across the last five games, and Dyson Daniels still hasn’t made a three-pointer since December 14. If Atlanta wants to compete for a top-six spot in the wide-open East this season, it likely isn’t done making moves, especially if Risacher can rehabilitate his trade value prior to the February 5 deadline.
The Grizzlies aren’t in hot form, either. They’ve won just thrice in their last 10 games, and Cam Spencer has slowed down slightly after canning nearly half of his threes in the first 30 games of the season. With Morant sidelined for most of that stretch, Jaren Jackson Jr. hasn’t done enough to step up offensively, topping 20 points just five times and recording double-digit rebounds just once. Memphis’ injury situation is still negative overall, with backup point guard Scotty Pippen Jr., starting center Zach Edey, and backup power forward Brandon Clarke all set to miss at least another month with their long-term ailments. The Grizzlies are as close to the 14th-seeded Sacramento Kings as they are to the sixth-seeded Phoenix Suns.
Hawks at Grizzlies pick, best bet
The Hawks’ numbers are pretty bad over their last five games: in that span, they have the sixth-worst offense and sixth-worst defense, and while their competition hasn’t been the absolute easiest — three of the five teams they’ve played have winning records — they’ve been disappointing nonetheless. In particular, they’ve clearly missed Porziņġis’ size, as they rank sixth-to-last in rebounding percentage since the McCollum acquisition and fourth-to-last since the Latvian most recently suited up on January 7. In general, Atlanta hasn’t had much of a presence inside: with more minutes going to smaller, offense-oriented players in McCollum and Kispert, it has conceded the eighth-highest field goal percentage in the restricted area and has recorded the ninth-fewest points in the paint.
That’s an area in which Memphis could have an advantage. Even without Edey, one of the league’s most dominant rebounders, the Grizzlies have ranked ninth in total rebounding percentage across the last 10 games, as Jock Landale has had at least eight boards in seven of his last eight games. They could have even more of an edge on the glass without Aldama, who plays more of a perimeter-oriented game despite being seven feet tall. Memphis has also been an above-average rim protecting as of late, allowing the eighth-lowest shooting percentage in the restricted area over the last 10 games, though it could do a better job stopping opponents from getting downhill in the first place. The Grizzlies will have to use their rebounding advantage to nullify some of their other disadvantages, as they’ve continually coughed up turnovers without compensating with steals. Their carelessness with the ball could be especially dangerous against the Hawks, who have been one of the league’s best teams in transition.
Atlanta’s recent defensive woes can’t entirely be tied to acquiring a pair of defensively-limited players. While the Hawks could’ve done better not to have allowed the ninth-most wide-open three-point attempts across the last five games, they’ve also gotten fairly unlucky that opponents have canned such looks at the league’s ninth-highest rate. They still rank fourth in deflections in the last five games, so McCollum and Kispert haven’t completely destroyed their swarming defensive style. Meanwhile, Memphis’ defense has had some glaring red flags: across the last 10 games, the Grizzlies have allowed the second-most wide-open threes and among the most catch-and-shoot looks and benefited from rather fortunate shooting. Both teams have generated uncontested looks at similar rates and are similarly due to benefit from positive regression in shooting luck.
Replacing Young with a Young-type player who doesn’t provide the same brilliant playmaking doesn’t seem like a strong long-term play for Atlanta on the surface, and maybe it isn’t; there’s a reason McCollum’s teams have won just four out of 14 playoff series. However, this Hawks team has suffered from some poor shooting luck, and the Grizzlies’ defense has been bad enough that they could provide Atlanta with the requisite looks to get back on track. Plus, Memphis could be jet-lagged after returning from a two-game Europe trip.
