Vanderbilts Commodores vs. Arkansas Razorbacks College Basketball prediction, preview
After starting a perfect 16-0, Vanderbilt has finally looked human and seen some regression. The Commodores went to Austin on Wednesday and got stomped as a road favorite by a red-hot Texas team, and then returned home on Saturday and lost to a Florida squad that’s rounding into form as one of the best in the country.
While it’s tough to see a team that started 16-0 going on a three-game losing streak, the schedule in the thick of SEC play does not get any kinder. Vandy now has to turn around and go on the road again into a very difficult place to play. Arkansas is unbeaten at home at 10-0, and also has been tremendous against expectations, going 8-2 ATS in those games.
The two games the Razorbacks failed to cover at home were back in mid-November, when they let things get way too tight against Samford and Winthrop. But given how well they’ve played over the last two months since then, I think the Hogs have move past those struggles. In 13 games since then, Arkansas is 9-4 straight up and 10-3 ATS, with the losses coming to Duke and Houston on neutrals and road games to Auburn and Georgia.
The road loss to Georgia came in Arkansas’ last game on Saturday, and the Hogs have been strong off a loss all season — 4-0 straight up and ATS in the following game. Arkansas also has three outright wins as an underdog during that span, coming over Texas Tech, Louisville and Tennessee.
While Vandy is a legit contender, I do think some regression is coming after its start to the season, especially with how difficult SEC play can be. Saturday against the Gators was the first time this season that the Commodores were priced as the underdog, and they opened a 3.5-point favorite for that one. Now they’re priced as the short dog once again, against a team that’s 10-0 when favored this season.
I like the Razorbacks to continue to take care of business at home and pull another one out.
