A Big 12 showdown takes place at 9 p.m. EST on Tuesday when the No. 12 Texas Tech Red Raiders head to Waco and face the Baylor Bears. The visitors come off a standout victory over BYU and bring plenty of momentum into this matchup, so it should be a good one.
These programs have faced off 132 times in history, with the Bears holding a 29-23 advantage. They’re also 19-6 at home but have lost two straight meetings.
Here’s a prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Texas Tech vs. Baylor on Tuesday, January 20.
Texas Tech vs. Baylor prediction, preview
The Red Raiders enter this matchup coming off a standout 84-71 win over No. 13 BYU, making it three straight victories. Tech now sits 14-4 on the campaign and 4-1 in conference play, though their 1-2 record on the road may raise a question or two on Wednesday.
This program sits 21st in the KenPom rankings with a +23.78 NetRtg. The Red Raiders score 83.4 PPG (47th) with a 55.4% eFG% (46th). They aren’t particularly efficient from two but shoot 37.8% from three with 11.1 3PM per game, ninth-best of any Division I team. They also dish out 16.2 assists (55th) with the 30th-ranked AST/TO ratio. Texas Tech pulls down an average of 38.6 rebounds (47th) and allows 73.1 PPG on the other end (127th). The Red Raiders’ opponents have a 49.4% eFG% (106th).
The leaders of this team are clearly JT Toppin and Christian Anderson. The former, a high-flying forward, averages 21.6 PPG and a team-best 11.2 rebounds and 1.9 blocks. The latter is a shifty guard who posts 19.8 PPG with a team-high 7.4 assists, also knocking down 42.9% of his three-point attempts. LeJuan Watts and Donovan Atwell average 13.4 and 11.4 PPG apiece, rounding out double-digit scorers. Finally, Jaylen Petty rounds out the remainder of the starting five with 9.2 PPG.
Baylor, meanwhile, comes in with an 11-6 record overall and 1-4 conference record. The Bears have dropped four of their five games this month, though it’s been something of a nightmare schedule with losses to No. 19 Kansas, No. 9 Iowa State and No. 6 Houston. An 8-2 home record does provide some measure of hope if the crowd can play a factor tonight though.
The Bears are 41st in the KenPom rankings with a +17.61 NetRtg. The offense stands out with 84.8 PPG (36th), logging a 54.4% eFG% (65th). Similarly to Texas Tech, they’re better from three-point range at 36.8% than they are from two. However, they tend to push the pace and take a high volume of field goal attempts. Baylor averages 15.8 assists per game (73rd) with the 79th-ranked AST/TO ratio. Defense isn’t a strong suit with 75.8 PPG allowed to opponents (200th), who shoot 48.9% in eFG% (85th). However, the Bears are strong on the boards with 39.4 per contest (31st) and the eighth-most offensive rebounds per game.
Guard Cameron Carr leads the team with 20.5 PPG while shooting 53.7% from the field and 43.6% from three, fueling NBA Draft discussions. Tounde Yessoufou posts 18.0 PPG and 2.1 steals, while Dan Skillings Jr. (10.6 PPG, 6.8 REB) and Obi Agbim (10.6 PPG, 3.4 AST) also pitch in as starters. Michael Rataj and Isaac Williams post 9.9 and 9.6 PPG apiece as well. Center Caden Powell paces the roster with 7.5 rebounds, also pitching in 6.5 PPG.
Texas Tech vs. Baylor pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists Texas Tech as a modest 1.5-point favorite tonight on the road with -130 odds to win on the Moneyline. Baylor’s odds of an outright upset sit at +110 with the game total set at 153.5 points.
This contest absolutely screams shootout potential. Both offenses score plenty of points while ranking top-50 in shot attempts per game, so it’s easy to see why the total sits where it does.
There’s not a ton of size on either side, which means that Toppin could dominate tonight. He comes off back-to-back outings of 31 PTS/13 REB and 27 PTS/13 REB, so he could find himself positioned to rack up another massive stat line here. One interesting trend is that despite the lack of standout big men, Baylor does actually post 4.9 blocks per game, 29th in the nation. The group could challenge Toppin on the interior, but it’ll be a difficult proposition. Plus, the Bears aren’t particularly strong defensively against the three-pointer, which is TTU’s bread and butter.
Last time these teams met, the Red Raiders produced a 73-59 win in Lubbock. Granted these teams look a little bit different compared to last year’s rosters, but each of the last two meetings resulted in double-digit wins for Texas Tech as well. Given that TTU has produced some standout wins over nationally ranked teams like BYU and Duke so far while Baylor doesn’t have a ranked win yet, I’m taking the more battle-tested squad here. The Red Raiders should come out on top and comfortably cover in a high-scoring affair.
