NC State Wolfpack vs. Clemson Tigers College Basketball prediction, preview
NC State is off a terrible loss at home on Saturday, losing by four points to Georgia Tech as a 17.5-point favorite. Betting splits are somewhat sharp to this being a bounce-back spot for the Wolfpack, but that could be overlooking how tough of a place to play Clemson has been.
The Tigers are a perfect 10-0 at home this season, with an average score margin of +22.3 points. Taking out the early season cupcakes, Clemson has been winning home games like this right around the number. It defeated West Virginia and Cincinnati by three points as a 3.5-point home favorite, and SMU by four points to push the spread (although the Mustangs backdoor pushed it at the buzzer).
That said, Clemson has been riding a nice home stand here, beating Boston College by 24 and Miami by 10, covering both games. The Tigers have been ferocious on the defensive side of the ball, ranking 14th on KenPom. On paper, NC State’s offense has traveled well in three true road games this season, but the numbers are a bit inflated with recent trips to Boston College and Florida State — the Wolfpack dropped an absurd 113 points on a pathetic FSU team.
The only other true road game was against much more comparable competition in Auburn, scoring just 73 points against a defense that ranks just 86th, per KenPom. Tuesday will mark just the second time this season that NC State has been the underdog, with the other occasion also being at Auburn — losing by double digits as a 6.5-point dog.
Since we have very little data to go on as an underdog this season, if we open things up to the Wolfpack priced as a short favorite, they also have not fared well. NC State has been favored by five or fewer points four times this season, but gone just 1-3 ATS and outright. The losses came on a neutral to Texas, at home to Kansas (with Darryn Peterson getting hurt) and at home to Virginia. The win came as a 4.5-point favorite at FSU, which simply does not belong anywhere in the class of these other teams.
NC State got a lot of love preseason, and has the potential to be something as the season goes on. But to this point, Will Wade’s team hasn’t proven capable of winning against tough competition, particularly in a tough road environment. I’ll back Clemson here to continue its success at home.
