LSU (13-5, 1-4) will take on Florida (13-5, 4-1) tonight at 7:00 p.m. EST at Gainesville’s Stephen C. O’Connell Center. For the visiting Tigers, securing an upset would go a long way in boosting their NCAA Tournament chances. As for the defending champion Gators, a win on Tuesday would mark their fifth straight victory.
Which of these SEC foes will come out on top this evening? Florida enters as 16.5-point favorites (-105) over LSU. The total is set at 157.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for tonight’s game between the Tigers and Gators.
LSU vs. Florida prediction, preview
These schools might have identical records, but not all wins are equal. LSU has struggled in conference play, winning once over five tries. That lone victory came against Missouri, a good not great program. However, it’s not as if this group hasn’t had some chances. The Tigers have dropped one-possession games to Texas A&M and Kentucky. In addition, they earned an impressive victory over SMU in December. Still, a signature win is needed for head coach Matt McMahon.
If the Tigers are going to keep things close, they’ll need to play their brand of basketball. That means scoring buckets early and often. Per KenPom, LSU ranks 33rd in the nation with a 122.1 adjusted offensive efficiency margin. This is a well-balanced attack, with four different players averaging more than 13.0 points per game. Leading the charge are guards DJ Thomas (16.2 PPG) and Max McKinnon (14.8 PPG). The former of the two is currently listed as questionable with a leg injury; he hasn’t played since December 29th. Down low, 6’8″ forward Marquel Sutton is putting up 13.8 points and 8.5 rebounds.
Where LSU falls short is on the other end of the floor. Opposing teams are hitting 46% of their two-point attempts vs. the Tigers, college basketball’s 29th-worst mark. That’s bad news against one of the nation’s most dangerous offensive units. Much like their opponents tonight, the Gators can go five-deep with quality scorers. Five different members of this roster are producing double-digit points on average. Unlike the Tigers, much of Florida’s strength is down low. The trio of Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon, and Rueben Chinyelu have combined for 43.6 points and 25.7 rebounds per game.
An even bigger weakness for LSU on defense is defending the perimeter. Opponents are connecting on 34.3% of their three-point attempts, fourth-worst among all SEC schools. In theory, that may not hurt the Tigers too much on Tuesday. The Gators are knocking down an unimpressive 28% of their shots from beyond the arc. Still, it’s not as if Florida doesn’t have any sharpshooters. Haugh is draining nearly two shots per game from long distance. Ditto for guard Urban Klavazar, who has done so in limited minutes.
LSU vs. Florida pick, best bet
Say what you will about LSU, but this team has held its own against most opponents. The Tigers have suffered just two losses by more than ten points, vs. ranked foes Texas Tech and Vanderbilt. That includes the previously mentioned one-possession defeats to Texas A&M and Kentucky. A road date against red-hot Florida is a whole different kind of challenge. Still, the Gators have had their share of struggles, including a loss to Missouri at home.
In terms of overall talent, UF is the clearly superior team. However, Florida doesn’t appear equipped to capitalize on LSU’s weak perimeter defense. In addition, a potential return could be on the horizon for Thomas. The Tigers, despite their lackluster SEC record, should stay respectable on the court in this one.
