Kansas Jayhawks vs. Colorado Buffaloes College Basketball prediction, preview
I’m pretty committed to fading Kansas on the road, but this one might even be too tough for me to stomach. Colorado is not a very good team, ranking 79th on KenPom, including the 124th-ranked defense. Kansas hit its stride with convincing home wins over Iowa State and Baylor last week, but has been a completely different team on the road this season.
The Jayhawks are just 1-3 in true road games this season, with the lone win somewhat of a fluke in overtime at NC State when Melvin Council went bonkers from downtown. Kansas is 0-2 on the road in Big 12 play, losing outright at UCF and West Virginia as a favorite in both games. Dating back to last season, Kansas is just 2-8 over its last 10 road games. On top of that, Bill Self has a health issue that prevented him from traveling with the team for this game.
Despite the issues with the Buffaloes, they have been a solid underdog this season. Colorado is 4-3 ATS when priced as the dog, including three outright wins. The Buffs have only been a home underdog once, and while things started out ugly, they came back to lose by just two points to Texas Tech and cover against an elite team. You could argue this is a very similar spot.
All that said, Kansas has a massive talent edge. The Jayhawks should be dominant defensively, and the offense has looked much improved. Kansas has won 19 of 20 in this matchup historically, including nine of the last 10 in Boulder. Colorado is also off a lot of travel, going east for a pair of road games that were both losses.
Given how the Buffs rallied against Texas Tech, and the clear road struggles Kansas has had, I lean to Colorado with the points. Despite just 25% of the money at DraftKings Sportsbook taking the points with the Buffs, they have moved from +5 to +3.5, which is telling. However, I think there might be a better spot to fade the Jayhawks on the road on deck, with Kansas State set to be catching even more points at home in a big rivalry game on Saturday night.
I may come around on a small play on Colorado before this game tips late night at 11pm ET, but have the Wildcats circled as a fade of Kansas on Saturday night.
