A pair of Big 12 teams will look to get back in the win column when the No. 9 Iowa State Cyclones host the UCF Knights as part of a loaded college basketball slate Tuesday evening.
Checking out the odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, the Cyclones are 14.5-point favorites with -1350 odds on the Moneyline at home. The Knights are +800 as an underdog on the Moneyline while the total o/u for the matchup is set at 156.5 points.
Below is my pick and prediction for Tuesday’s Iowa State vs. UCF matchup.
Iowa State vs. UCF prediction, pick
Iowa State started its season as one of the hottest teams in the country. The Cyclones were one of the last five remaining undefeated teams, carrying their 16-0 record into the second week of conference play and riding it all the way to a No. 2 ranking in the AP Poll. However, a meeting with a desperate Kansas team at Allen Fieldhouse sent the ‘Clones tumbling, as they lost by 21 and followed that up with another road loss to Cincinnati that saw Iowa State trail by as many as 17 before ultimately falling by nine.
Iowa State has hung its hat on strong defense, turning the ball over to get quick fast-break points on offense, it is the No. 8 ranked team defensively on KenPom. That lockdown Cyclone defense hasn’t shown up recently, though. In their first three games of conference play, the Cyclones held opponents to 63.3 points a game, turning them over 13.6 times for 17.3 points off turnovers. In its two losses, however, Iowa State allowed 81.5 points a game, turning opponents over 8.5 times for just seven points a game.
Iowa State is led by its trio of Milan Momcilovic, Tamin Lipsey and Joshua Jefferson. Momcilovic is averaging 18.1 points a game, including 3.9 three-pointers a game, with his 54.2% three-point percentage leading the country. Jefferson adds 17.3 points, 7.8 rebounds and 4.9 assists a game while Lipsey has a team-high 5.3 assists a game, 13.7 points and 3.9 rebounds. The Cyclones’ offense is averaging 73.2 points a game in Big 12 play and the offense has dropped to No. 13 in KenPom rankings following their two losses.
After being picked to finish 14th of 16 teams in the Big 12 preseason rankings, the UCF Knights may have surprised some with a stronger start to their season. The Knights went 11-1 in nonconference play and followed that up by opening Big 12 play with a statement win over perennial conference favorite Kansas, ranked No. 17 at the time. The win earned UCF its best start since the 2010-11 season. The Knights won two of their next three games, including a victory over Cincinnati, to have them tied for fifth in the Big 12.
Where Iowa State imposes its strength on the defensive end, UCF prefers to get it done offensively, using a quicker pace, strong rebounding and solid shooting to do so. The Knights play a fast-paced style of offense, and they are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation, averaging 13.4 offensive boards a game, good for third in the Big 12. Though UCF ultimately lost by seven to Arizona in its last game, the Knights out-rebounded the Wildcats 14-9 on the offensive end, scoring 19 second-chance points. UCF has averaged 77.8 points a game in conference play while shooting it at a 46.4% clip.
The Knights have been led this season by transfer guards Riley Kugel and Themus Fulks, who both average around 14 points a game. Kugel leads the team with 14.6 points on 41.6% shooting while Fulks adds 14 points and shoots the three-ball at a 50% clip, also dishing out a team-high 7.4 assists a game. At forward, transfer Jamichael Stillwell is dominating the boards for UCF with 7.9 rebounds a game while also averaging 12.3 points. Jordan Burks, another transfer forward, rounds out UCF’s double-figure scoring with 12.5 points and 4.1 rebounds a game. Together, they help the Knights’ offense rank No. 41 in the KenPom rankings.
Iowa State vs. UCF Best Bet
Though Iowa State returns home to Hilton Coliseum, where it is 10-0 so far this season, the 14.5-point line is a little hard to stomach after the Cyclones’ recent play and how close the Knights played No. 1-ranked Arizona.
Iowa State has seen its shooting efficiency drop since Big 12 play began, going from 50.6% on the season to 44.2% in conference play, while the Cyclones have struggled to keep teams off the offensive glass in their losses as well. Kansas and Cincinnati combined for 26 offensive boards in Iowa State’s two losses, an area UCF excels at.
With the Knights also starting conference play well, picking up wins over both teams Iowa State lost to and keeping top-ranked Arizona within striking distance, with the Cyclones not playing their best game recently, UCF should keep this closer than the spread suggests.
