The long grind of college football season is just about over, and the battle for the National Championship is down to two. The Indiana Hoosiers will face off with the Miami Hurricanes with everything on the line.
Indiana is searching for their first National Championship in program history, and looking to be the third straight champion out of the Big Ten. Miami last won the National Championship in 2001, and is seeking to be the first representative of the ACC conference since Clemson in the 2018-19 season.
Looking at the odds for the matchup, Indiana enters as 8.5-point favorites and holds -340 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. Miami holds +270 odds of getting the outright victory, with the game total set at 47.5 for the matchup.
There is plenty of analysis on DraftKings Network for the best bets, player props, betting splits, and plenty more that you can read here. But this article will look at my favorite same game parlay on DraftKings Sportsbook for the matchup.
Miami vs. Indiana prediction, preview
Miami Preview
The Miami Hurricanes went 10-2 across the regular season, and 6-2 in ACC Conference play. Their two losses come against Louisville and SMU in overtime. Miami entered the College Football Playoffs as the 10th seed, after it being a controversial discussion point for whether or not they deserved an opportunity. The Hurricanes have responded by defeating Texas A&M, Ohio State, and Ole Miss to earn a chance at the National Championship.
Mario Cristobal’s squad ranks 30th in the country in scoring 31.6 points per game. Carson Beck was brought in largely because of his big game experience at Georgia and has been overall impressive this season. Beck has completed an ACC-best 73.3% of his passing attempts for 3,581 passing yards, 29 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions on the season.
Miami has also been extremely impressive defensively and won the battle of the trenches in convincing fashion throughout this playoff run. The Hurricanes have limited opponents to just 14.0 points per game, which is the fifth-best rate in the country. They average the fourth-most sacks per game in the FBS, which will need to be a factor in this matchup for Miami to get its desired result.
While the two losses in the regular season cannot be fully ignored, Miami has met the challenge when facing top teams. The Hurricanes are on a 7-0 against the spread streak when facing Top 25 programs.
Indiana Preview
The Indiana Hoosiers have emerged as one of the best stories in sports. Curt Cignetti has provided a massive boost to the program and is one win away from a National Championship in just his second season with the program. Indiana has gone undefeated on the season, which included wins over Ohio State, Oregon, and Illinois as their ranked wins in the regular season. The Hoosiers earned the top seed coming into the playoffs and defeated both Alabama and Oregon in convincing fashion to earn the National Championship opportunity.
Indiana has been dominant on both sides of the ball this year. Offensively, they rank second in the country in scoring at 42.6 points per game. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza earned the Heisman Trophy and has a clear path to the number one pick in the NFL Draft with his play. The California transfer completed 73.0% of his pass attempts for 3,349 yards, an FBS-best 41 passing touchdowns, and six interceptions this season. Mendoza has tallied more touchdown passes (8) than incompletions (5) across this playoff run.
Looking at the defense, the Hoosiers have held teams to just 11.1 points per game this season, which is the second-best rate among D1 teams. They have produced the best turnover differential in the sport, and they also average the fifth-fewest penalties per game in the country.
Indiana also has proven ready for major matchups and played the ninth most difficult strength of schedule in the regular season. They went 5-0 against the spread when facing ranked opponents. It is also worth noting that the favorite has covered the spread in each of the last six national title games.
Miami vs. Indiana Same Game Parlay
Carson Beck has as much big-game experience as you could hope for at the quarterback position and will be called on for a strong performance in this matchup. Indiana is going to put up points, and he will need to match this with the Miami offense if the Hurricanes are to have a chance. While Indiana has an impressive defense, Miami has an elite offensive line that should keep Beck upright. The Georgia transfer averaged 238.7 passing yards per game this season and threw for 200+ passing yards in 11 of the 15 games played this season. Expect Miami to give him plenty of opportunities to air it out, and for the 200+ yard line to be well within his range.
Beck’s most explosive target is Malachi Toney, and expect him to be involved throughout this matchup. The true freshman tallied 99 receptions for 1,089 receiving yards and an ACC-best nine receiving scores on the season. He has been especially impressive to close the season, recording 45 receptions for 445 yards and six touchdowns over his final six games played. Toney has tallied 70+ receiving yards in eight of his 15 games played this year.
The Indiana defense will not make life easy, but Toney’s ability with the ball after the catch will be crucial to reaching this total. Miami is creative in ways to put the ball in his hands, and count on him being given opportunities to make plays in the short passing and screen game. Toney can rip off a massive gain on any given touch and has tallied 5+ receptions in 13 of the 15 games played this year. Expect him to be heavily involved in the offense and crack 70+ yards against this Hoosiers team.
While Beck and the passing game dominate the headlines, Mark Fletcher Jr. has been increasingly impressive as the season has continued. Across his 13 games played, the 225-pound running back has tallied 1,080 rushing yards, 132 receiving yards, and 12 total scores. He has reached the end zone in eight of the 13 games this year, with multiple touchdowns in three games.
There is not much precedent for scores against this Indiana team. They allowed just 15 total touchdowns this year, with nine coming through the air and six on the ground. Old Dominion tallied two rushing scores against the Hoosiers, Penn State tallied two rushing touchdowns, and Oregon and Iowa each tallied a score on the ground. Fletcher Jr. runs angry and is a threat to break free from well outside the red zone. He has six rush attempts at the goal line and 43 in the red zone this season. Expect Miami to be willing to keep the ball on the ground when they are in range, and for Fletcher Jr. to be the top vehicle for points. He has just one receiving score in the CFB playoffs thus far, and expect him to be more involved in the rushing game with everything on the line.
On the other side of this matchup, look for Omar Cooper Jr. to pull in 50+ yards through the air. While Elijah Sarratt headlines Indiana’s aerial attack, he still seems to be feeling the effects of a hamstring issue that kept him sidelined for three games. This has allowed Cooper Jr. to scale up his role, and he has done a nice job in the Hoosiers’ attack. On the season, the junior wide receiver has tallied 64 receptions for 866 receiving yards and 13 receiving touchdowns. He is also a big play threat and led the Big Ten with 21.9 yards per reception last year. He has tallied 50+ receiving yards in seven games this year. Miami’s pass rush will provide a challenge, but expect Indiana to adjust by working to get the ball out of Mendoza’s hands early and for Cooper Jr. to be one of the biggest beneficiaries.
Both defenses have impressed this year and will provide resistance in this game. But expect there to be enough offensive production for some value in the player prop market, and I am rolling with the +750 odds of DraftKings Sportsbook for this to be my top SGP pick for the National Championship.
Best Same Game Parlay Bet:
- Malachi Toney 70+ Receiving Yards
- Carson Beck 200+ Passing Yards
- Mark Fletcher Jr Anytime Touchdown
- Omar Cooper Jr 50+ Receiving Yards
