The No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers take on the No. 10 Miami Hurricanes in the National Championship Game. The title game kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET in Miami Gardens, Florida.
The Hoosiers are listed as 8.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at O/U 47.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for the national title game.
Indiana vs. Miami prediction, preview
Miami Preview
The Hurricanes have been the Cinderella story of this College Football Playoff. Miami was somewhat controversially given the final at-large bid, despite not even making it to the ACC title game in a down year for the conference. However, the Hurricanes have proven the committee right at every turn, taking down two SEC teams and the defending national champions en route to the national title game. They will have their toughest test yet against the steamroller that is the Indiana Hoosiers. However, Miami has the perk of getting to play this game in its home stadium. The national title game is being played at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. While there should be a big percentage of Indiana fans in the building, even the familiarity with the facility, travel and field should give Miami a slight edge.
The story of this Miami team has been its defense. EDGE Rueben Bain Jr. is likely going to be a top-five pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Alongside Akheem Mesidor, this defensive line can give Fernando Mendoza pressure unlike anything he’s seen all season. That duo has combined for 19 sacks this season, the second-most of any duo of teammates in the country. If the Miami defense does its job slowing down Fernando Mendoza, it will be on Carson Beck to take advantage of that. Beck has a career riddled with turnover issues and mental errors that have overshadowed his great talent. However, in this College Football Playoff, Beck has been fantastic for Miami, making all the big throws when needed. The Hurricanes also have a superstar wide receiver, Malachi Toney, and a great running back, Mark Fletcher Jr. The Hurricanes are big underdogs in this game, but they are more than capable of pulling out the win if everything clicks into place.
Indiana Preview
It is difficult to put into words how special this season has been for the Indiana Hoosiers. This was one of the worst programs in college football before Curt Cignetti arrived. From 1994 to 2023, Indiana only made five bowl games, and they lost all five. The Hoosiers didn’t win more than four games in any of the three seasons before Cignetti arrived. He immediately came in and flipped the program on its head, making the College Football Playoff in his first season in Bloomington. However, it seemed like just a nice story, as Indiana was clearly not up to the task against the elites in college football. This season, things have gone to a whole other level. Upgrading to a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback and developing the surrounding talent has turned this team into a wrecking crew.
Everything that Indiana is doing defies what has worked in college football over the past several decades. If they win on Monday, they will be the team with the fewest blue-chip recruits to win a national title this century. Fernando Mendoza’s ability has taken everybody by surprise this season, but the level he has played at in the College Football Playoff has been otherworldly. He did not miss a single throw in the win over Oregon, and if he plays at that level again in this game, Miami realistically has no shot. Mendoza’s trio of star receivers and a strong running game to support him make this offense nearly impossible to stop. If Indiana can hold off Miami’s elite pass rush, its offense should continue its run of dominance, and Indiana will lift a trophy on Monday night.
Indiana vs. Miami Pick
My best bet for this game is for Miami to cover as 8.5-point underdogs. Getting in front of the freight train that is the Indiana Hoosiers is an uneasy feeling, but this line feels inflated because nobody wants to fade Indiana. The Hoosiers were 4.5-point underdogs to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game, 7.5-point favorites over Alabama and 3.5-point favorites over Oregon. It seems like a jump that they would now be 8.5-point favorites against a Miami team that has passed every test in this College Football Playoff.
The circumstances weren’t the same, but these two teams have one common opponent, Ohio State. Indiana played the Buckeyes for the Big Ten title, and Miami played them for a spot in the CFP semifinals. Both defenses managed to shut down Ohio State, holding them to 14 points or fewer. Miami controlled the game against Ohio State, whereas Indiana only scored one touchdown in the game, which came in the second half. Just based on how both teams performed against the best team they have faced this season, the performances are relatively even. If anything, there would be a slight edge to how Miami controlled the flow of the game against Ohio State.
This Miami defensive line will be arguably the best that Indiana has faced all season. While they have passed every test and gone undefeated, the Hoosiers have had issues against elite defenses. Indiana was tied 13-13 against Iowa in the fourth quarter before scoring a touchdown in the final two minutes to win the game. Wisconsin held them at bay for a half, trailing 10-7 at halftime, before the lack of offensive ability for Wisconsin let the game slip away. Finally, Ohio State held them to just 13 points in the Big Ten title game. The Miami defense is capable of creating havoc and forcing a mistake or two out of the Heisman winner.
Miami’s path to keeping this game close is running the ball well and getting after the quarterback. If Mendoza has time, he will pick them apart. Bain and Mesidor need to be at their best and force Mendoza into bad decisions. On the offensive side of the ball, Miami needs to run to the outside. Miami has a great offensive line and can hold off the Indiana front seven. One issue that the Indiana defense has had this season is allowing runners to bounce outside and get into the open field. Miami has athletes capable of making plays in space, such as Malachi Toney and backup running back CharMar Brown. Look to those two players to try to get the ball outside the tackles and make plays. If Miami can rush the passer effectively and run the ball efficiently, it will be down to Carson Beck to avoid turning the ball over, the final piece of the puzzle. Beck has been great in the CFP so far, and if he can continue to hit those big throws on third down, Miami has a chance to win this game.
