The Warriors are hosting the Heat on Monday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Golden State is favored by 5.5 points and this game carries a total of 239.5 points.
Let’s dive into my preview and pick for the game.
Warriors vs. Heat preview, prediction
The Warriors are coming off a 136-116 win over the Hornets on Saturday, marking their 12th win in their last 15. For the season, Golden State is 24-19, and the team ranks ninth in net rating. The win over Charlotte on Saturday was impressive, as the Hornets have been playing much better as of late and Jimmy Butler was inactive for personal reasons. The veteran has been removed from the injury report and will return tonight to face his former team.
Butler has been a major factor on both ends of the floor this season. The wing is averaging 20.1 points, 5.6 rebounds 4.9 assists and 1.4 steals per game on a career-best 52% shooting. Butler ranks second in plus/minus for Golden State and he has been a great complement to Stephen Curry, who is leading the team with 27.6 PPG. While the Warriors will have Butler back, they will be without De’Anthony Melton (knee), which is a big loss.
Ranking 12th in the NBA in plus/minus this season, Melton has been outstanding on both ends of the floor. The veteran has scored at least 19 points off the bench in four of his last six and with Melton inactive, Golden State is just 12-13, compared to 12-6 with him active. Overall, with Melton on the floor this season, the Warriors’ net rating is an eye-popping 20.1 points per 100 possessions better than with him off. Golden State has players like Moses Moody and Buddy Hield that will see more work in Melton’s absence, but it’s going to be difficult for them to fill the void left behind by Melton. Yes, the 27-year-old is only a bench player and the Warriors as a whole can likely overcome Melton’s absence tonight, especially on their home floor, where the club is 16-6 this season, but him being absent certainly makes things more difficult for this matchup vs. the Heat, who are fresh off a win over the defending champion Thunder.
On its home floor, Miami defeated Oklahoma City 122-120 on Saturday, improving the Heat to 22-20 and No.12 in net rating for the season. Miami won this game despite Tyler Herro (ribs), Jaime Jacquez Jr. (knee) and Davion Mitchell (shoulder) all being inactive. Jacquez Jr. and Mitchell are listed as probable and will return tonight, which is huge, as they rank first and third in plus/minus for the team this season, respectively. Herro on the other hand will remain out and while most would believe this is a big loss for the Heat, it’s actually a boost, as Miami has been far better without the guard this season.
Herro ranks dead last in plus/minus for the Heat and they are just 4-7 with him active, compared to 18-13 with him inactive. The team has only lost one game in the last seven that the guard has missed, including wins over the Thunder, Pistons and Nuggets. Herro is averaging 21.9 PPG, but his presence has hurt Miami’s flow on offense, as the team’s offensive rating is 8.3 points per 100 possessions worse with him on the floor. One has to wonder if the Heat will make Herro available around the trade deadline next month given the team’s struggles with him this season.
Meanwhile, with Herro out and Jacquez Jr. and Mitchell back, Miami is in their best position to beat the Warriors tonight, but the one main thing working against the Heat is that this game is on the road in Golden State. As noted above, the Warriors are 16-6 at home this season, whereas Miami is just 7-13 on the road.
Warriors vs. Heat pick, best bet
While Melton being out hurts, the Warriors are a totally different team on their home floor and they should be able to pull out a win today over the Heat. Covering this 5.5-point spread, however, could be challenging.
While Miami has a difficult time winning on the road with a 7-13 record, the team is 11-9 ATS away from Miami and as discussed above, the Heat being with Herro tonight is a good thing for the team. Miami is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 without Herro and backing the Heat +5.5 is the right move.
