The NFL Playoffs continue on Sunday with another two games in the Divisional Round. In the afternoon, Drake Maye and the New England Patriots welcome C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans to Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts.
This ought to be a close contest with plenty of drama. On one side, one of the AFC’s best squads led by a legitimate MVP candidate takes the field with the backing of the home crowd behind them. They’ll face off against a fearsome defensive unit that just about every team struggles again, albeit with the caveat that the visitors are missing a key piece of their offense.
Here’s a breakdown of the betting splits, odds and most popular player props for Texans vs. Patriots on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Texans vs. Patriots betting splits, odds
The Patriots cruised through a historically easy regular-season schedule to the tune of a 14-3 finish, then downed the Los Angeles Chargers 16-3 in an ugly Wild Card contest to open the postseason. They’re a productive team on both sides of the ball, and with Drake Maye under center as one of the two leading candidates to win league MVP, it’s tough to pick against them. On the opposite side, the Texans went 12-5 this season and clawed their way out of an 0-3 start to the campaign to somehow make the postseason. The NFL’s best defense keeps them in games, but the offense remains inconsistent with C.J. Stroud under center — the team overcame his missteps in a 30-6 Wild Card win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, but he must play better in this spot to advance.
DraftKings Sportsbook lists New England as a three-point favorite at home on Sunday. The Patriots hold -175 odds to win outright on the Moneyline while the Texans are a +145 ML underdog to upset. The game total sits at 40.5 combined points.
With the stage set, the betting splits for this contest prove quite interesting.
Betting splits via DraftKings Network show that the public largely favors the Patriots. On the Moneyline, 62% of total bets are on New England to win on Sunday with 59% of the handle also on that side. That means the Texans see just 38% of straight bets in their favor with 41% of the handle backing them.
As for the spread, the distribution of bets is spread slightly more evenly with 57% of wagers favoring the Patriots to cover to 43% for Houston. However, nearly 3/4 of the total handle is on New England to cover the -3 spread with 74% of handle on that side of the split. With just 26% of the handle on the Texans, we see a very wide gap in this regard.
What’s driving the public to lean so heavily in the Patriots’ favor? The factors are fairly clear. New England did have the better record during the regular season, has a much more consistent offense led by a superior quarterback, and sees the benefit of home-field advantage here. The team is 12-5-1 ATS to this point, including a 5-2-1 record ATS as a home favorite (though that mark slips to 5-4-1 at home overall).
Meanwhile, Houston has a record of 10-8 ATS, though a 7-1 ATS mark on the road and 4-0 number as an away underdog remain quite notable given the circumstances. However, the Texans face an uphill battle in this contest with top offensive weapon Nico Collins (concussion) ruled out. The star wideout paced the roster with 1,117 receiving yards and seven total touchdowns during the regular season, also garnering 71 catches on a team-high 120 targets. Without him on the field, this offenses loses its best playmaker who typically presents a mismatch at 6-foot-4 with elite field-stretching ability.
The loss of Collins also likely plays a role in the public betting trends on the total. 72% of bets and 71% of the handle favor under 40.5 combined points, so there’s a heavy preference seen here. The Texans’ defense is truly elite while the Patriots’ falls into the upper echelon of units as well — it’s not surprising to see this game listed with the lowest total of the Divisional Round schedule, or that the public leans so heavily towards the under.
Most popular player props
Here are the top five most-bet player props for Sunday’s game:
- Rhamondre Stevenson anytime touchdown scorer (+155)
- Hunter Henry anytime touchdown scorer (+190)
- Drake Maye anytime touchdown scorer (+310)
- Jayden Higgins anytime touchdown scorer (+320)
- TreVeyon Henderson anytime touchdown scorer (+200)
As you can see, the list of most-bet player props includes four Patriots to score anytime touchdowns and just one player from the Texans. After Rhamondre Stevenson racked up 100+ scrimmage yards in each of his three most recent games and scored five total touchdowns over that span, the hype surrounding him appears to have picked up considerably as the leading pick to reach paydirt here. After him, reliable tight end Hunter Henry makes an appearance alongside Maye himself (who would have to use his legs for this prop) as well as rookie halfback TreVeyon Henderson. It appears bettors aren’t feeling dissuaded by the strength of Houston’s defense.
On the opposite side, rookie wideout Jayden Higgins is the lone Texan on this list. A second-round pick, the Iowa State product began to make more of an impact over the final few weeks of the regular season and profiles similarly to Collins with his large build and athletic traits. Beyond him though, it seems bettors feel somewhat shaky taking anyone on this unit to reach the end zone, possibly as a result of Stroud’s struggles in the Wild Card.
