The Los Angeles Rams certainly didn’t make it look easy in the Wild Card Round against the 8-9 Carolina Panthers, but in the end, Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, and Co. pulled out a tremendous comeback win and punched the Rams’ ticket to Chicago for the Divisional Round. They’ll face the Bears at 4:30 p.m. ET this afternoon.
If Los Angeles wants to keep its hopes of a second Super Bowl title in four seasons alive, it’ll need to lean heavily on its MVP and Offensive Player of the Year candidates. That means that Nacua — fresh off of a 13-touch, 129-yard, two-touchdown performance in the Wild Card Round — will arguably have to be even better.
The Rams are 4.5-point favorites for tonight’s matchup at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 48.5. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bet centered around Nacua, the all-time career leader in receiving yards per game.
Best Puka Nacua Prop Bet on DraftKings Sportsbook
Puka Nacua 10+ Receptions (+243)
Los Angeles leaned heavily on Nacua at the start of the season, and he recorded 10 or more catches in four of the season’s first five games, averaging a mind-boggling 117.6 yards per game over that span. His pace slowed down after that, as his production was impacted by a slew of minor injuries, but Stafford once again chose to lean on his star man when the lights were brightest, as he had 10 or more catches in two of the final three regular season games and in the Wild Card Round. The strategy worked — the Rams scored at least 34 points in each of those games — so a career-high-tying 20 targets shouldn’t be out of the question on Sunday night. All in all, Nacua has had double-digit receptions seven times in 17 games (+142 implied odds).
It’s not like Chicago has a secondary built to slow Nacua down. The Bears allowed the 15th-most receptions overall and ranked 19th by expected points added on passing plays. They didn’t let any Green Bay Packers receiver record 10 receptions in the Wild Card Round, but Romeo Doubs (eight catches on 11 targets) got close, and Green Bay doesn’t lean nearly as heavily on Doubs as Los Angeles does on Nacua. Chicago doesn’t have any elite corners: its best outside corner, Nahshon Wright, ranked just 53rd among 112 qualified corners by Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades, and slot corner Kyler Gordon missed most of the season with an injury before returning with a mediocre performance against the Packers. To be fair, the Bears’ rush defense is even worse than their secondary, but if Stafford’s Plan A — throwing to Nacua — is working, there’d be no reason to turn away from it.
