The Texans and Patriots kick off Sunday’s two-game slate during the Divisional Round. The matchup begins at 3 p.m. ET.
New England is a three-point favorite and -175 on the moneyline, while Houston is +145 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at 40.5 points.
Here are my top C.J. Stroud prop bets for the Texans vs. Patriots Divisional Round matchup on Sunday.
Best C.J. Stroud Prop Bets
The Texans finished the regular season with a 12-5 record, falling just shy of the AFC South title. Their success predicated on their defense, as the unit ranked first in yards against and second in points allowed. Both the pass and rush defenses were equally as strong.
The offense is where there was some doubt. The Texans were a mediocre offensive team, ranking 13th in points and 18th in yards. C.J. Stroud had another underwhelming season after exploding as a rookie in 2023. He finished with 3,041 passing yards, 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions on a 64.5% completion rate through 14 games.
This dip in production wasn’t due to a lack of talent around him. The Houston offense lost Stefon Diggs to the Patriots, and Joe Mixon was injured all year, but the team still featured Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz and Nick Chubb. Even Woody Marks and Jayden Higgins—two excellent rookies—made a notable impact this year.
To make matters more difficult, New England has one of the best defenses in the league. It ranks fourth in points allowed and eighth in yards against. Stroud will likely have trouble against this defense as he’s struggled against much worse units this year.
Even so, a line of 213.5 passing yards is too low for Stroud. He hit 250 last week against the Steelers and over this prop line in seven of 14 regular season games. Furthermore, the Patriots are better against the run, which could mean the Texans may tilt toward the air.
This is a low bar even against a great defense. Stroud should have enough volume to clear the over.