On Sunday, the NFL Playoffs keep rolling with two more Divisional Round matchups. The first of the pair pits the Houston Texans against the New England Patriots in what should be a fun battle between a stellar defense and the league’s likely MVP.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, New England is a three-point favorite at home with -170 odds on the Moneyline. The total sits at 40.5 combined points, the lowest of this round of games.
Here are the top player prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Texans vs. Patriots in the AFC Divisional Round.
Texans vs. Patriots best prop bets
Dalton Schultz over 4.5 receptions (-104)
The situation in Houston appeared somewhat rough to begin with given the inconsistencies of the offense throughout the season and C.J. Stroud’s questionable play in last week’s Wild Card. Now, things go from sketchy to dire with star wideout Nico Collins (concussion) ruled out for Sunday. As the team’s leader in targets (120), receiving yards (1,117) and touchdowns (seven total), there’s a clear void left behind with him on the sidelines. Someone has to step up, but the question is who elevates their game in Collins’ absence.
You may be surprised to hear this, but Dalton Schultz actually paced the Texans in receptions this season with 82 grabs. His 106 targets were also second on the roster as well for an average of 6.24 per game, so with Collins out, it makes sense to project an increased share of looks. Stroud should look toward his tight end early and often as a reliable playmaker, particularly in the short game as a checkdown option. The Patriots fall seventh in aDOT allowed to opponents while also giving up the 11th-most targets (7.78) and receptions (5.72) to opposing tight ends. To top it off, Schultz has very reliable hands with the fourth-best catch percentage among the position at 77.36% (min 250 routes run). He’s logged five-plus catches in 10 of his 18 appearances this year as well.
Given the combination of a possible bump in the pecking order for Schultz, his steady role as a trusted weapon, plus the defensive trends of New England, five catches may be easy to hit in this one.
Rhamondre Stevenson under 21.5 receiving yards (-109)
There’s been a lot of talk recently about the role Rhamondre Stevenson plays in the Patriots’ backfield. To be fair, much of the hype is deserved after three straight outings of 100+ scrimmage yards, including 128 total yards just last week in the Wild Card game against the Chargers. The veteran halfback looks rejuvenated and has scored five touchdowns over that three-game sample, particularly making an impact as a receiver with 55, 22 and 75 yards on target totals of five, two and four. That has plenty of pundits hyping him up as a much-needed playmaker against a strong defense, but I’m going to zag where others zig here and fade Stevenson.
The Texans rank in the middle of the pack against halfbacks in the receiving game, allowing 31.72 yards on 4.28 receptions per contest. While it’s true the Pats could prioritize putting the ball in Stevenson’s hands and letting him go to work in space, he’s really not excessively shifty or explosive at 24th in forced missed tackles and 28th in explosive rushes of 10+ yards. He’s also 30th in forced missed tackles after the catch as well. All that is to say — against a Houston defense that moves with speed and hits hard at all three levels, Stevenson will likely have a difficult time making plays in this contest and isn’t a player you should look to target overs on. I feel pretty confident projecting him to stay under this receiving yardage line.
