Six games of NBA action are taking place across today’s slate, which kicked off with an early game in London. Looking into the night slate, the New Orleans Pelicans will challenge the Houston Rockets in a Western Conference bout.
This will mark the second of four matchups between these two teams this season. The first game took place on Dec. 18th, resulting in a 133-128 overtime win for the Pelicans.
Looking at the odds for tonight’s matchup, the Rockets enter as 13.5-point favorites and hold -850 Moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Pelicans hold +575 odds of getting the outright victory with the game total set at 231.5 points.
This article will look at a preview and prediction for the Sunday night matchup.
Pelicans at Rockets prediction, preview
The New Orleans Pelicans have been one of the more confusing teams in the NBA. At full strength, they look like a contender. But injuries have been a consistent issue, and they have underwhelmed in plenty of matchups this year. New Orleans holds a 10-34 record on the season, which is the worst record in the NBA and puts it in 15th place in the Western Conference. It enters this matchup having lost 12 of its previous 14 games. The Pelicans do have a better outlook against the spread, going 22-21-1 ATS so far this season, and the game total has gone over in 24 of their 44 games.
New Orleans ranks 20th in the league in scoring at 115.0 points per game. It ranks 24th in offensive rating, 21st in field-goal percentage, 25th in three-point percentage, 19th in rebounds per game and 11th in pace. Defensively, opponents are scoring 122.3 points per game against the Pelicans, which ranks 28th in the NBA. New Orleans also ranks 28th in defensive rating, 27th in opponent field-goal percentage, 17th in opponent three-point percentage and 28th in assists allowed.
Herbert Jones has been ruled out for this matchup with a right ankle sprain, while Dejounte Murray remains sidelined as he recovers from his Achilles tear. Zion Williamson is expected to be available and suit up for his 29th game of the season tonight. The Duke product is averaging 22.6 points, 5.8 rebounds and 3.5 assists on the season. Trey Murphy III has been a popular trade target, and he is posting averages of 22.2 points, 6.2 rebounds and 3.6 assists for this Pelicans team.
Saddiq Bey has largely exceeded expectations this season and scored a season-high 29 points in the first matchup between these two teams. New Orleans has also laid the groundwork for its future by selecting Jeremiah Fears and Derik Queen in the first round of the previous NBA draft. Both rookies have shown some really encouraging flashes this year. Jordan Poole, Jose Alvarado and Yves Missi also play notable roles in the rotations.
The Houston Rockets took the all-in swing to trade for Kevin Durant in the offseason in order to solidify their outlook as a contender. They have gotten off to a 24-15 start to the season, which slots them at fifth place in the Western Conference. Houston has hit a bit of a rough patch of late, losing five of its previous eight games. The Rockets are 19-20 against the spread on the season, and the game total is 19-19-1 on the season.
Ime Udoka’s squad primarily leans on a defensive identity for success. Houston is holding teams to the fourth-fewest points per game at 110.7 on the season. It also ranks ninth in defensive rating, seventh in opponent field-goal percentage and 13th in opponent three-point percentage. Offensively, the Rockets are scoring 117.1 points per game, which is the 12th-most in the league. They also rank fourth in offensive rating, seventh in field-goal percentage and ninth in three-point percentage, although they attempt the second-fewest three-point attempts per game. Houston also ranks 28th in the league in pace.
Fred VanVleet remains sidelined with his ACL tear, while Tari Eason is questionable for tonight’s matchup with an ankle sprain. Kevin Durant has stepped in as the score-first option the roster needed, averaging 26.3 points, 5.4 rebounds and 4.5 assists while shooting 40.4% from beyond the three-point arc. Alperen Sengun has further scaled up his production this year, posting averages of 21.6 points, 9.2 rebounds and 6.4 assists. Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr. and Reed Sheppard have each shown encouraging progress in their young development. Steven Adams also leads the NBA with 4.5 offensive rebounds per game off the bench.
Pelicans at Rockets pick, best bet
You could make the case that the Rockets have slightly underwhelmed on the season based on the expectations following Durant’s addition. But this is still a team that no opponent will be thrilled to face in the postseason, and they are still finding their stride as a team. However, it is fair to have some doubts about Houston’s current outlook to put away opponents and cover significant spreads.
Since the start of January, the Rockets are 4-5 straight up and have beaten a team by a margin of 14+ just once. This came in a 120-96 victory over the Nets on Jan. 1st. Since this time, they have lost to the Mavericks, the Trail Blazers twice, the Kings and the Thunder. Their victories came against the Suns by three points, the Bulls by six points and the Timberwolves by five points.
New Orleans has not put it all together yet this season, but it has the talent to be a legitimate playoff threat. It can beat any team on any given night, and proved this by taking down the Rockets 133-128 in the first matchup. This occurred even while the Rockets out-rebounded the Pelicans 58-41, and Houston pushed the lead to as many as 25.
With one of their better injury outlooks on the season, expect the Pelicans to be ready to compete. Zion Williamson is capable of going toe-to-toe with any star on any individual night, Kevin Durant included. While I am not willing to take the swing on the outright upset, the 13.5-point spread feels too large based on the matchup. Houston snapped this streak by covering the -4.5-point spread against the Timberwolves on Friday, but failed to cover the spread in eight consecutive games before this.
The Pelicans likely dug the hole too deep to make any sort of noise on the season. But they still have plenty to play for as they sort through what is the right direction moving forward. New Orleans has had success in this matchup before, and expect Houston to lack the offensive firepower to fully put the Pelicans away as the game finishes within the 13.5-point margin tonight.
