This is an article about determining who will score the first touchdown in this Sunday’s tilt between the Patriots and the Texans. However, if last week was any indication, you might not need to be in any rush to make your bet. We didn’t see anyone find the end zone in the first three quarters of Sunday Night Football in the Wild Card round, and Houston’s defense is even more daunting than the Chargers’ unit. There also wasn’t a lot of points on Monday Night Football, and now the Texans will be without star wideout Nico Collins (concussion).
As you might expect, this game has the lowest total of the weekend on the DraftKings Sportsbook. Still, I like to occasionally consider myself an optimist. Someone will score a touchdown in this matchup. I swear it. Now it’s just a matter of figuring out who that lucky soul will be. Let’s break down the odds and make a couple picks.
Texans at Patriots First Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets
Rhamondre Stevenson First Touchdown Scorer (+800)
I will keep smashing Rhamondre Stevenson’s first touchdown scorer prop, so long as his odds stay this close to TreVeyon Henderson (+850). If it wasn’t already apparent heading into last week, when healthy, Stevenson is the RB1 of the Patriots. Not only did the veteran out-snap his rookie teammate 40-to-26 in the victory over the Chargers, but Stevenson finished with 128 scrimmage yards to Henderson’s 36. Let us also not forget that Stevenson is the starter — a very important element in the first touchdown scorer market — and that he’s seen a majority of the goal line opportunities throughout the season. Henderson had flashes during his rookie campaign, yet most of those came with Stevenson inactive. In fact, including the playoffs, Henderson’s only found the end zone in three of the 15 games that Stevenson’s played in. That should tell you all you need to know.
Christian Kirk First Touchdown Scorer (+1400)
I don’t want to put too much weight into a single performance, but it’s clear that someone will need to step up in the absence of Nico Collins, and Kirk is the Texans’ veteran option to do just that. Kirk hauled in eight of his nine targets for 144 yards and a touchdown against the Steelers, but it’s not like this stat line came completely out of nowhere. It was simply opportunity. Remember, the 29-year-old is only a couple seasons removed from registering over 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns with the Jaguars. Kirk has some real talent. It’s also been proven time and time again that the way to find the end zone against the Patriots is through the air. 65.8% of touchdowns scored versus New England when on passes — the fourth-highest mark in the NFL. C.J. Stroud (+3000) will need to throw it to somebody, and right now, Kirk seems like option No. 1.
