Senegal vs. Morocco. West Africa vs. North Africa. Sadio Mané vs. Achraf Hakimi. The Lions of Teranga vs. the Atlas Lions. 90 minutes of football, plus — possibly — extra time and penalties. At the end of it all, one of these great teams will be crowned the best in all of Africa.
This incredible, dramatic Africa Cup of Nations deserves a dramatic finale, and no two teams are stronger in crunch time than Senegal and Morocco. An entire continent of 1.5 billion people across millions of square miles — and, surely, a sellout crowd of some 70,000 people in Rabat — awaits the 2 p.m. ET (8 p.m. local) kickoff.
Claiming continental supremacy would mean a lot for the Lions of Teranga, who seek to send Mané out of his final AFCON with his second title in the last three tournaments. Undoubtedly, it’d mean more for the Atlas Lions, whose home fans have been a driving force behind their incredible run to their first final since 2004.
Morocco is a +130 favorite to win in regular time (-175 to lift the trophy) at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Senegal is +265 (+130 to lift the trophy). There are +190 odds that this Africa Cup of Nations will require extra time and, possibly, penalties.
Senegal vs. Morocco prediction, pick
Now that the teams have advanced to the final, it hardly matters how they got there, but it’s worth noting that the Lions of Teranga’s road has been smoother. They had a better goal difference in a group stage in which both teams finished on seven points, and each of their knockout-stage fixtures ended in regular time, while the Atlas Lions had to fight through a penalty shootout against Nigeria. But Morocco triumphed, and now its golden generation will have the chance to claim its first continental title since 1976. The Atlas Lions have clinched enough world rankings points in the tournament to climb to eighth, the best mark achieved by an African team since the Super Eagles climbed to fifth in 1994. The Lions of Teranga are currently projected to rise to 14th, their best-ever ranking. This afternoon’s match will not just be one between two African powerhouses but two global powerhouses.
Morocco’s defense has held strong throughout the tournament. The Atlas Lions haven’t conceded from open play since March 2025, as the one goal they’ve allowed this tournament came via a Mali penalty. Yassine Bounou got tested more than usual during the semifinal, as he was forced to make a save for just the fourth time all tournament. The numbers are pretty staggering — just four shots on target allowed from open play in six matches — and while the Atlas Lions have partially benefited from the fact that opponents have gotten their shots on net at the lowest rate, they’ve forced difficult shots, racked up six more tackles than any other team, and allowed the third-fewest crosses of any team despite playing more than twice as many minutes as the two teams ahead. It’s hard to argue that Manchester United’s Noussair Mazraoui, Marseille’s Nayef Aguerd, Torino’s Adam Masina, and Hakimi don’t constitute the most talented and most well-rounded defense on the continent, since all four are capable of marking attackers and contributing to the attack.
If anything, the front three has been a disappointment to have only scored nine goals, but that’s nitpicking, given that Brahim Díaz leads the Golden Boot race with five goals and Ayoub El Kaabi (three) isn’t far behind. Morocco certainly did enough upfront to have beaten the Super Eagles in regular time, attempting 16 shots to Nigeria’s five, and it was only thwarted by a heroic five-save effort by Stanley Nwabili. It only ranks seventh in shot on target percentage, but it generates enough shots and quality chances that that hasn’t been too much of an issue yet.
Yet is an operative word there, because Senegal has looked every bit as strong as the hosts for most of the tournament. While Díaz and El Kaabi have accounted for all but one of the Atlas Lions’ goals, the Lions of Teranga have had a much more balanced approach, with Mané, Papa Gueye, Nicolas Jackson and Cherif Ndiaye all netting twice and Iliman Ndiaye, Abdoulaye Seck, Habib Diallo, and Ibrahim Mbaye all contributing one each. They’ve been absolutely clinical in front of the net, averaging nearly two more shots on target per 90 minutes than any other team, leading all tournament participants in on-target percentage, and ranking fifth in goals per shot, and Mané’s 78th-minute screamer from outside the box was the deserved culmination to a dominant performance against Egypt.
Defensively, Morocco still has the edge, but Senegal shouldn’t be doubted. It has conceded just two goals all competition, allowing the fourth-fewest shots on target per 90 minutes despite getting its opponents being significantly more accurate than the Atlas Lions’. Like Morocco, it has done a good job racking up tackles, and it has been more disciplined than the Atlas Lions, being whistled for five fewer fouls. If Bounou is the best goalkeeper in Africa, Edouard Mendy is the second-best, as he’s made 11 saves from the 13 shots on target he’s faced, the best save percentage of any non-Bounou keeper. The Lions of Teranga will be missing captain Kalidou Koulibaly after he picked up a yellow card and an injury in the semifinals, but Seck stepped in nicely for him during the Round of 16, getting one of his two shots on target.
There isn’t much that separates these two continental giants, but Senegal has shown slightly more holes than Morocco has. The Lions of Teranga allowed three shots on target to each of DR Congo, Benin, and Sudan and were fortunate that Mendy was able to limit the total damage to two goals, but Díaz and El Kaabi are clinical enough that they can’t rely on Mendy to save them forever, especially since they’ve put up two consecutive one-goal performances. Koulibaly’s intangibles heighten his impact on the pitch to a level greater than that which the stats would indicate, and his absence will be huge, while the Atlas Lions will have their captain and their fans to lean on. This has been Morocco’s tournament to lose, and it has done nothing to suggest that it won’t finish the job.
