The NFL Playoffs continue on Saturday with two matchups in the Divisional Round. After the first game of the day, Sam Darnold’s Seattle Seahawks welcome Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers to Lumen Field for an NFC West showdown.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Seattle is a seven-point favorite at home with -340 odds on the Moneyline. The total sits at 45.5 combined points.
Here are the top player prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for 49ers vs. Seahawks in the NFC Divisional Round.
49ers vs. Seahawks best prop bets
Jake Tonges over 4.5 receptions (+129)
First thing first, I though long and hard about including the over on a receptions line for superstar halfback Christian McCaffrey here. Seattle allows the most receptions to halfbacks of any team, which sets him up for success. However, the line looks very high at 6.5 even given the role he plays in the offense, so the search for value elsewhere began.
With that context out of the way, the over on 4.5 catches for Jake Tonges seems very nice given his elevation to starter status in the wake of George Kittle’s Achilles injury. The 26-year-old tight end has posted some higher-volume games with the Pro Bowler out of the picture, seeing nine, seven and 11 targets across three outings without Kittle this season. he also garnered five targets in another pair of contests, so there’s plenty proof of concept that suggests Tonges can take on a key role.
The Seahawks’ defense has the lowest aDOT of any franchise at just 6.94, so they tend to take away deeper passes and force the ball into short and intermediate areas of the field. That explains why Seattle gives up so many receptions to halfbacks, as well as why the team allows the fourth-most targets (8.47) and receptions per game (6.18) to tight ends. Feeding the ball to Kittle was a priority for the Niners’ attack, and while Tonges isn’t the same caliber of talent as the multi-time All-Pro, he’s the next-best thing. Brock Purdy should look his way plenty on Saturday, so plus money brings stellar value here.
Zach Charbonnet 12+ rush attempts (-102)
There are a litany of factors at play here that make me feel very bullish on Zach Charbonnet’s rush attempts prop. Let’s start from the start, shall we? After splitting reps with backfield mate Kenneth Walker III all season long, Charbonnet still finished with the edge in snap share at 49% to his teammate’s 47%. Yes, Walker did actually log a greater share of rush attempts, but the last two weeks show a slight preference to Charbonnet once again. In Week 17 of the regular season, Charbonnet handled 18 carries, then he took 17 rush attempts in Week 18. He was his most productive self in those outings, tallying 110 and 74 rushing yards with three rushing touchdowns as well. Over that same span, Walker took 15 and 16 carries. It doesn’t mean Charbonnet holds full control of the split come Saturday, but the team has clearly felt comfortable giving him additional work as of late.
Here’s another factor. Sam Darnold popped up on the injury report with an oblique injury around midweek, and while he’s expected to play, his play now becomes an even greater question mark. If the Seahawks look to insulate their quarterback and try to protect him while lessening his workload slightly, there could be an even greater share of rushing work available in this game as well. Seattle already runs the ball at one of the NFL’s highest rates, but a banged-up 49ers defense that just allowed 140 rushing yards to the Eagles last week may perhaps be a vulnerable target.
The stars may align for the Seahawks to unleash the run game to its full potential here. Both Charbonnet and Walker should see heavy workloads barring a negative game script in the second half. The former saw at least 12 rush attempts in nine of his 16 games this season and finds himself positioned nicely to hit that mark again in the Divisional Round.
