A late-week add to the injury report could have massive implications in the NFL Playoffs tonight. Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold (oblique) received a questionable designation for Saturday’s game vs. the San Francisco 49ers, but new information has now emerged regarding his status.
Per ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Darnold hasn’t thrown a football since his oblique injury occurred on Thursday. With backup QB Drew Lock taking first-team reps at practice, there’s an air of uncertainty hovering around the NFC’s No. 1 seed.
Savvy bettors know every little factor can have an impact on how a game plays out on the gridiron. Given this recent news, are there any prop bet markets in particular to look at for Seahawks vs. 49ers tonight?
Sam Darnold injury update
Darnold excelled this season to the tune of a 67.7% completion rate with 4,048 passing yards and 25 touchdowns through the air, leading Seattle to its first division title since 2020. The 28-year-old did have his fair share of ups and downs with some disappointing performances mixed in, but he largely played very well and looked the part of a potential franchise quarterback deserving of the $100 million contract he signed over the offseason.
However, this injury puts much into doubt heading into a Divisional Round matchup with the season on the line. Darnold told reporters earlier this week that the percentage he may not play is “very low,” but the fact he hasn’t thrown a pass since suffering the injury is quite concerning. With Drew Lock taking first-team reps in practice to close the week, the Seahawks seem to be preparing for the worst-case scenario while allowing their starter to rest up and try to manage this oblique issue.
Still, it would be shocking to see Darnold miss today’s game given the stakes. Seattle earned the NFC’s top seed and shows makings of a legitimate Super Bowl contender. One can expect the quarterback to try and play through the injury.
Betting impact and top prop bets
So, how might this injury news affect the prop bet landscape for Seahawks vs. 49ers and overall outlook for this game?
This matchup sees Seattle enter as seven-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook with -298 odds to win on the Moneyline. A modest game total of 44.5 combined points is the second-lowest of the Divisional Round slate, though it does still account for decent scoring production from both sides.
In a perfect world, Darnold goes out there and looks totally healthy. However, that may not necessarily be the case. If the oblique is really bothering him, he could struggle some with accuracy on cross-field timing, but there’s an even bigger concern. His ability to drive the ball deep downfield and truly take advantage of shot plays could suffer, taking away a huge element of the offense — Darnold ranked seventh among quarterbacks in explosive throw percentage at 18.0% (min. 100 passes).
Looking at prop bet markets, Darnold doesn’t currently have a line for a longest completion. If one does get posted by kickoff, taking the under on it could prove prudent if he doesn’t air the ball out as aggressively in weeks past. However, there are a couple of other prop bets to target here given the injury he’s nursing.
The Seahawks already rank third in rush play percentage (49.95%) and 30th in pass play percentage (50.05%), showing how they emphasize a run-heavy attack to control the clock and grind down opponents on the ground. Typically, that helps to set up those deeper pass attempts and play action, allowing Darnold to unleash his arm. Today though, offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak could instead look to further insulate his quarterback by leaning on the run even more. Rush attempt prop lines for both Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet could hold additional appeal here — the former’s O/U sits at 13.5 attempts while the latter’s mark reads 12.5. Both players exceeded those lines in each of their last two regular-season games, with Walker taking 15 and 16 carries while Charbonnet saw 18 and 17.
In particular, Charbonnet quietly out-carried his teammate over those two most recent games without much fanfare surrounding the bump in workload. If the Seahawks lean on the run at an increased rate tonight, 14+ carries at +142 odds and 16+ attempts at +298 odds both look like stellar value.
If the halfbacks see additional volume tonight, it makes sense that Darnold’s workload may decrease in turn. The O/U on his pass attempts is set at 27.5 tonight with the over listed at -128 odds and the under at +100 value. He averaged 28.1 throws per game during the regular season, so even a slight downtick could see him go under this prop line.
Seahawks vs. 49ers kicks off at 8 p.m. ET.
