The Broncos are hosting the Bills for a divisional playoff matchup this Saturday. The winner of this game will advance to the AFC Championship to face the winner of the Patriots vs. the Texans, which will be played on Sunday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Broncos are a 1.5-point favorite over the Bills and this game carries a total of 45.5 points.
As always, DraftKings is offering some huge contests for this Showdown slate between the Broncos and the Bills. Below, I dive into some of my favorite targets for this slate.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $300K Showdown Special [$100K to 1st] (BUF @ DEN)
Captain’s Picks
RJ Harvey ($14,400 CPT, $9,600 CPT)
While rostering Josh Allen at captain is obviously very tempting, the quarterback is going to be ultra chalky at captain and building a more balanced lineup with Harvey at captain and then Allen in a FLEX Spot is the right move for this Showdown slate. The Bills have been very weak at defending the run all season, making this a prime spot for Harvey. Buffalo is allowing the most rushing touchdowns (24) and the third-most yards per rush this season (5.1). Travis Etienne just exposed the Bills for 22.6 FPTS last Sunday and Harvey has similar upside this weekend.
J.K. Dobbins (foot) is nearing a return, but he isn’t expected to play vs. Buffalo and with him remaining out, Harvey will operate as the Broncos’ main back. With Dobbins sidelined for the last seven games, Harvey is leading Denver with 13.7 carries per game while logging 60.7% of the snaps. The rookie has seen 21 redzone carries and in the passing game, he is running a route on 47% of his team’s dropbacks and seeing a target on 21% of his routes. During this span, Harvey has scored six touchdowns and at least 18 FPTS in four of these seven games. With the Bills’ weak run defense on the other side, Harvey is a -125 favorite to score a touchdown on DraftKings Sportsbook, which are the best odds to score for this contest.
UTIL Plays
Josh Allen ($18,000 CPT, $12,000 FLEX)
Allen is unavoidable for this Showdown slate. The quarterback put the Bills on his back in last Sunday’s Wild Card win vs. the Jaguars, scoring 30.22 FPTS. Allen threw for one touchdown and rushed for two scores. The quarterback ranks fifth in yards per pass (8.0) and he has thrown 26 touchdowns to 10 picks this season. As a rusher, Allen leads all quarterbacks in carries (123), redzone carries (22) and touchdowns (16).
Allen has scored at least 24 FPTS in four of his last five and he is very likely to lead this Showdown slate in FPTS, regardless of facing an elite Broncos’ defense that is giving up the fewest yards per play this season (4.5).
Dalton Kincaid ($9,600 CPT, $6,400 FLEX)
Kincaid found paydirt last week vs. the Jaguars, resulting in 11.8 FPTS and he should have another strong showing vs. Denver. The Broncos are allowing the second-fewest yards per pass this season (6.1), but they have been vulnerable to tight ends, giving up the ninth-most yards to the position (1,015).
Kincaid is only running a route on 50% of his team’s dropbacks this season, but he is seeing a target on 24% of those routes, including 12 redzone targets and six targets over 20 yards in 13 games. Kincaid has scored at least 14 FPTS in six of those games, and he leads all tight ends in both FPTS per snap (0.44) and yards per route run (2.65).
Pat Bryant ($6,000 CPT, $4,000 FLEX)
Bryant has a ton of merit as a punt for this Showdown slate. The rookie didn’t see much work to start the season, but ever since Week 6, Bryant has scored at least 5 FPTS in seven of his 11 games, peaking with 13.2 FPTS vs. the Chiefs in Week 11. During this time, Bryant is running a route on 63% of his team’s dropbacks and he has garnered a target on 16% of his routes, including 10 redzone targets and six targets over 20 yards.
While Bryant is facing a Bills’ defense that is giving up the fourth-fewest yards per pass this season (6.2), the rookie has the potential to approach 10 FPTS.
Fades
James Cook ($16,800 CPT, $11,200 FLEX)
Cook has had a great season, but he has hit a rough patch recently, scoring single-digit FPTS in back-to-back games and this is a brutal matchup for him vs. the Broncos. Denver is allowing the second-fewest yards per carry (3.9) and the fifth-fewest rushing touchdowns this season (11).
The Broncos haven’t allowed a running back to score double-digit FPTS in three consecutive games and fading Cook at these high salaries is the right move for this Showdown slate.
THE OUTCOME
The Bills blew the Broncos out 31-7 in the Wild Card round last season and while we are likely to see a much more competitive game this time around, Buffalo should once again prevail. The Bills are coming off an impressive road win over the Jaguars in the Wild Card round and Buffalo has only lost once since late November. Meanwhile, Denver is well rested after having the bye, but the team didn’t finish the regular season in convincing fashion.
In their final three games, the Broncos lost 34-20 to the Jaguars at home, they only beat the Patrick Mahomes-less Chiefs 20-13 and then in the regular season finale, Denver defeated the Chargers 19-3, but only scoring 19 points wasn’t overly encouraging, as Los Angeles rested the majority of their starters.
Bo Nix will be making just the second playoff start of his career and while this game will be in Denver, the Bills should be the more confident group and advance to the AFC Championship with a win.
Final Score: Bills 28, Broncos 24
