Marquette Golden Eagles vs. DePaul Blue Demons College Basketball prediction, preview
Marquette has been a team I’ve faded often, sitting at just 6-12 on the season, including 4-13-1 ATS. The Golden Eagles have been an even better fade away from home, with all six of their wins coming on home court. In games they’ve had to travel, Shaka Smart’s team is 0-7, including 0-5 in true road games (1-4 ATS). The lone road cover came in a 16-point loss to UConn in which the Huskies were 17-point favorites.
Marquette has also been dreadful in the underdog role this season, going 0-8 in those game, and just 2-6 ATS. After a few seasons of terrific success, the Golden Eagles, simply put, are one of the worst teams in the Big East. Who happens to be the best ATS team in the Big East? Believe it or not, that’d be DePaul at 11-5-1 ATS.
The Blue Demons are off to a solid 7-3 start at home this season, and are 8-1 when priced as the favorite. DePaul enters Friday night losing four of its last five, but it’s been playing a big step up in competition. The four losses all came as an underdog of 12.5 or more to Saint John’s, Villanova and UConn twice. If we just look at how the Blue Demons have been doing compared to expectations recently, they are on a 6-1 ATS run over the last seven games.
It’s not often we see DePaul priced as just a short favorite, but when favored by 3.5 or less this season, it has gone 2-0 SU/ATS. I’m expecting Marquette to have just an awful time trying to put points on the board in this game, for a couple of reasons. The Eagles rank just 189th nationally in points per game, and the number drops to 67.7 PPG in road games.
On KenPom, Marquette’s offensive rating sits at just 163rd nationally. DePaul has offensive struggles of its own, but makes up for it on defense. The Blue Demons rank 42nd on the defensive side of the ball on KenPom, and should be able to rally on home court to give Marquette a tough time on the road on a Friday night.
I’ll lay the points with the home favorite.
