The Loyola Chicago Ramblers (5-13) and Dayton Flyers (13-4) are set to face off on Friday night, going head-to-head in Ohio. The Atlantic 10 showdown will tip off at 8:30 p.m. EST on ESPN2.
The Flyers are 16.5-point favorites at home with -2100 Moneyline odds and the total has been set at 142.5 points. Here is a preview of the conference matchup featuring odds and lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Loyola Chicago vs. Dayton Preview, Predictio
Loyola Chicago Preview
The Ramblers have already lost more games this season than they did in either of the past two campaigns. They followed up their three-point, season-opening win over Cleveland State with a seven-game losing streak. Loyola Chicago finally got back on track once December rolled around, picking up wins over Central Michigan, Princeton, Santa Clara and Rhode Island. Since the start of January, however, the Ramblers have lost four straight to Dayton, Davidson, George Washington and George Mason.
Wisconsin transfer Xavier Amos recently made his Loyola Chicago debut after dealing with a hand injury, averaging 11.4 points in his first five games back, but the forward has been out again for the last two weeks. Senior guard Justin Moore leads the Ramblers with 12.5 points, 4.1 assists and 3.0 turnovers per game. He also missed Loyola Chicago’s last game on Tuesday, as did New Mexico transfer guard Kayde Datson and his 10.4 points per game. Junior center Miles Rubin, who led the A10 in field goal percentage in each of the past two seasons, is averaging 11.1 points, 6.8 rebounds and a conference-high 2.5 blocks a night.
Loyola Chicago currently ranks outside the top 300 in field goal percentage, three-point percentage and free throw percentage. They also rank dead-last nationally in turnovers forced per game, all while their opponents rank top-15 in three-point percentage.
Per the latest KenPom ratings, the Ramblers rank No. 222 on offense, No. 340 on defense and No. 293 overall. They come in at No. 316 in the NET, going 1-1 against Quad 1, 0-3 against Quad 2, 1-5 against Quad 3 and 3-4 against Quad 4. Friday’s game at Dayton constitutes a Quad 2 matchup.
Dayton Preview
In between some early-season wins against low-majors, the Flyers came up short against Cincinnati but beat both Marquette and Georgetown in overtime. While Dayton couldn’t beat No. 9 BYU or Virginia Tech at neutral sites or Liberty at home, they at least managed to blow out Florida State. The Flyers sit atop the A10 standings, opening conference play with four consecutive wins over Fordham, Loyola Chicago, George Washington and Duquesne.
Senior Javon Bennett has scored double figures in all but two games this season, leading the Flyers with 16.6 points per game. The 5-foot-11 guard has gone from 39.0% shooting on 5.4 three-point attempts last year to 31.5% on 7.3 attempts this year. Georgia transfer De’Shayne Montgomery constitutes the other half of a high-scoring backcourt duo with his 14.7 points per game on .526/.368/.827 shooting splits, not to mention his 2.4 steals per game. Rutgers transfer Jordan Derkack is putting up 8.1 points per game – down from his 17.0 with Merrimack two years ago – plus a team-high 3.1 assists per game, although he missed Dayton’s last game with an injury. French 7-footer Amael L’Etang, who is averaging 12.8 points and 6.5 rebounds per game, has also been banged up, missing all of A10 action so far.
Dayton is forcing the ninth-most turnovers and hitting the ninth-most free throws in the country on a per-game basis. Their opponents boast the 51st-highest three-point percentage, however.
The Flyers rank No. 72 in the updated KenPom ratings, boasting the No. 131 adjusted offense and No. 32 adjusted defense. As for the NET rankings, Dayton comes in at No. 77, going 0-2 against Quad 1, 1-1 against Quad 2, 5-1 against Quad 3 and 7-0 against Quad 4. Friday’s game versus Loyola Chicago constitutes a Q4 matchup.
Loyola Chicago vs. Dayton Pick, Best Bet
The Flyers have only won by 17-plus points five times through 17 games this season. So while they seem like a shoe-in to beat any team ranked outside the KenPom top-100, there is a rockier path to a blowout Dayton victory. Just two weeks ago, the Flyers only beat the Ramblers by two. That game was on the road, though, and all five instances of the Flyers covering a 16.5-point spread came at home. They did so against Canisius, North Carolina Central and North Florida – all of whom rank near Loyola Chicago in the KenPom – plus a pair of top-125 teams in East Tennessee State and Florida State. Loyola Chicago’s last road game was a 35-point loss to George Washington, who is only two spots above Dayton in the KenPom. If injury availabilities break their way, look for the Flyers to win this one comfortably.
Looking at the point total, Dayton has gone over in 10 of 17 games, although two of those required overtime to clear 142.5. They have also only exceeded that mark once in their last five contests. Loyola Chicago has gone over in 10 of their 18 games so far this season – including each of their last three – thanks in large part to their horrendous defense. However, Dayton doesn’t exactly boast the kind of high-powered offense that is primed to take full advantage of Loyola Chicago’s shortcomings on that end of the floor. The Flyers also run a below-average pace with a genuinely good defense, so the under looks like the better play.
