And then there were eight. There’s only four teams in each conference still alive in the NFL Playoffs, which makes all these Divisional Round games must-watch matchups. On that note, the weekend festivities get started on Saturday afternoon at 4:30 p.m. ET when two heavyweights from the AFC square-off in Denver. It’s the Bills and it’s the Broncos.
There are many questions hovering around this tilt. Can Josh Allen finally slay his postseason demons? Is Bo Nix really a Super Bowl caliber quarterback? Still, the most important query, at least for the purposes of this article, is who is going to score the game’s first touchdown. Well, that’s what I’m here to answer. Let’s break down the first touchdown scorer market on DraftKings Sportsbook and make a couple picks.
Bills at Broncos First Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets
RJ Harvey First Touchdown Scorer (+550)
I know. I know. This isn’t exactly the sexiest bet in the world. That said, RJ Harvey is tied with Josh Allen (+550) and James Cook (+550) at the shortest first touchdown scorer odds for a reason. Since J.K. Dobbins (foot) suffered his potentially season-ending injury in Week 10, Harvey has been the main man in the Broncos’ backfield, seeing double-digit carries in all but one game since Week 11. It’s a span of time where Harvey’s also amassed six trips to the end zone, so it’s not like we’re talking about empty volume, either. In fact, in Denver’s final seven contests of the regular season, Harvey saw 20 red zone carries and an additional six red zone targets. To put that in perspective, Jaleel McLaughlin (+2500) has seen five touches inside the 20-yard line as Harvey’s primary backup in the same stretch of time. Buffalo allowed the second-most opponent rushing touchdowns per game during the regular season (1.3). This is a defense that Harvey can exploit early and often.
Khalil Shakir First Touchdown Scorer (+1300)
As referenced above, Josh Allen and James Cook are co-favorites to score this contest’s first touchdown. If you’re searching for reasons as to why, look no further than the fact that Allen sits third in the NFL in rushing touchdowns, while Cook ranks sixth. Heck, Allen almost found the end zone on a “tush push” from the 10-yard line against the Jaguars. He’s a special breed of athlete. All that said, I’m wanting to back a prop that a little father down the board. That’s where Khalil Shakir comes in to the picture. It wasn’t the best season for Shakir — who was sort of exposed as a No. 1 receiving option — yet the wideout still led the Bills in targets (95), receptions (72) and receiving yards (719). Crucially, Shakir also led Buffalo in red zone targets (13). That alone would make Shakir a viable target in the first touchdown scorer market, but we can’t ignore the Boise State product’s performance and usage in the Wild Card Round. Shakir caught all 12 of his targets from Allen, which was more than double the amount any other pass-catcher saw. If Shakir’s volume is even close to that level again on Saturday, he’ll certainly see some high-leverage opportunities around the goal line.
