The NFL playoffs roll on this Saturday with a pair of games on tap that feature the No. 1 seed in each conference. After the Broncos host the Bills in the first game of the day, the San Francisco 49ers visit the Seattle Seahawks in a rematch between these NFC West rivals.
It should be another close, hard-fought game between these two West Coast opponents, and the environment at Lumen Field should be outstanding. Before the start of Saturday’s showdown, let’s take a closer look at what picks and player props the public is backing..
The Seahawks enter this contest as 7-point favorites (-110) over the 49ers on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the over/under set at 45.5 points. Seattle is favored at -340 on the moneyline.
Betting Splits
There is a fascinating split on the moneyline with 55% of the best on the Seahawks but only 34% of the handle. That indicates the the bigger money bets are leaning the way of San Francisco, and the 49ers have almost two-third of the total money on them, even though just over half the public is picking Seattle to win outright.
Against the seven-point spread, the handle split is similar, although the total number of bets is even more skewed in favor of the visitor. Almost 75% of bets are taking the touchdown and backing the 49ers. Maybe it’s the Sam Darnold factor, since Seattle’s QB struggled last year in the playoffs with the Vikings and is dealing with an oblique injury. The 49ers will be without George Kittle (Achilles) but the public still seems confident enough in Brock Purdy and coach Kyle Shanahan to think the 49ers can at least cover in this matchup. The 49ers covered in 10-6-2 against the spread this season, while the Seahawks were 12-5 against the spread, and 13-1 straight-up when they were the favorite.
In regards to the point total, the under is the preferred play by both the total bets and the handle, with the bigger bets tending to favor the under even more than the general public. The teams played two low-scoring games in the regular season, totaling 30 points in Week 1 and only 16 points in Week 18. Last week, the Seahawks were on a bye while the 49ers played a 42-point game in Philadelphia. Overall, the Seahawks went over the point total in nine of their 17 games while the 49ers went over in 10 of their 18 games.
Most Popular Player Props
Here are the top five most-bet player props for Saturday’s game:
- Christian McCaffrey anytime touchdown scorer (-130)
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime touchdown scorer (-105)
- Jake Tonges anytime touchdown scorer (+310)
- Zach Charbonnet anytime touchdown scorer (-120)
- Jauan Jennings anytime touchdown scorer (+240)
The top five player props from this matchup are all anytime touchdown bets for some of the top scoring options from each team. As you can tell from the game splits, the public seems to be leaning towards San Francisco, which is also evidenced in the player props since three 49ers make the list compared to just two Seahawks.
The top spot goes to Christian McCaffrey, who has the shortest odds of any player in this game to score a touchdown. He had two scores last week in the 49ers’ playoff win against the Eagles:
The 29-year-old veteran scored a total of 17 touchdowns in his 17 regular-season games. He bounced back beautifully from last year’s lost season, and he’ll be even more the focus of the offense without Kittle available this week. McCaffrey didn’t score in either of his two matchups this season against the Seahawks’ though. In fact, he hasn’t gotten into the end zone in any of his last four head-to-head matchups with Seattle.
Kittle’s direct replacement, Jake Tonges is getting some love as an anytime touchdown option as well, bringing great value at +310. Tonges scored five touchdowns this season while filling in for Kittle and scored in Week 17 against the Bears in the most recent game in which Kittle was sidelined.
The third and final member of the 49ers whose touchdown prop makes this list is WR Jauan Jennings. Jennings could also get some more targets with Kittle out, especially since Ricky Pearsall (knee) is questionable. Jennings had nine scores this season and finished with 55 catches for 643 total yards. He didn’t score against the Seahawks, but did find the end zone six times in his last six regular-season games. He only had one catch last week against the Eagles, but he has a good chance to bounce back this week.
On the Seattle side, Smith-Njigba to score a touchdown is the most bet player prop. The superstar receiver had 10 touchdowns in his 17 games but only found the end zone once in his last four contests, and he failed to score in his two games against the Niners. Personally, I think his odds are a little unfavorable given the 49ers’ secondary and the questions around Darnold, but the public is ready to back him since he’s been such an unstoppable force for most of the season.
Seahawks RB Zach Charbonnet shared playing time with Kenneth Walker III for most of the year, but Charbonnet was typically the option that got the work near the end zone. He finished with a team-high 12 touchdowns on the season, including four rushing scores in his last three games. He scored the only touchdown in the Week 18 matchup between these teams, and he also scored a touchdown in their Week 1 matchup.
Even though he may not get all the work, he gets the usage he needs for an anytime touchdown, which makes him a solid pick for this prop on Saturday night.
